AfD in the state elections: the shift to the right is not only a problem in East Germany: at least 18 dead in an accident involving a bus carrying migrants in Mexico

There was a time when the AfD lost election after election: in Rhineland-Palatinate, in Baden-Württemberg in 2021, in Schleswig-Holstein in 2023, it was completely thrown out of the state parliament. The party was and is only strong in East Germany. But that’s over. In the elections in Lower Saxony a year ago, the party, led by a renewed state leadership, doubled its results. Now it has gained four percentage points in Hesse and reached second place – a record result in West Germany. And even in Bavaria, where conservative competition from the CSU and the Free Voters is fierce, it grows into the second strongest force with a plus of five points.

Something has started moving.

So far, the party controlled by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution has turned away voters in West Germany. Even though the party did not perform much differently in terms of content and tactics than in the East, and was even more moderate, in the West German states the inhibitions against voting for such a radical party were even greater. Now it’s over. The yuck factor has disappeared, the party has been normalized: despite all the warnings that the AfD is a danger to democracy, that it has no solutions to the country’s problems, and despite the sometimes anti-democratic and anti-people behavior of party officials, the party achieves new record results, also in the West.

This has been indicated: the share of voters who could not imagine voting for the AfD fell from 75 to 54 percent in three years. There are many reasons for this: During the Corona pandemic, many people doubted whether politicians would still respond proportionately. Populists also have an easy time thanks to federal energy policy, including Germany’s unilateral approach to phasing out nuclear energy, and the energy policy consequences of the war in Ukraine: the AfD scores points with its commitment to the diesel engine and against the energy transition. When it comes to migration policy, the majority has shifted towards the AfD: almost 60 percent of people say in surveys that the country cannot tolerate more refugees – the time of the hospitable culture is over. And last but not least, the AfD has always benefited from the fear of relegation, especially in times of rampant inflation: 55 percent of voters say they fear that things could get worse for them.

Last but not least, the affair surrounding the extremely anti-Jewish leaflet from Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger showed that fundamental issues were shifting: public disgust about it seemed great. But the Free Voters, like the AfD, benefited from the elections and put Nazi crimes into perspective.

In addition, there is great dissatisfaction with the federal government. She turned the elections into a great success for the AfD. Even SPD voters defected en masse to the AfD. As in previous elections, it attracted many non-voters to the polls, especially protest voters who believe that no other party qualifies. And last but not least, the incidents of recent days involving AfD leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel could have benefited the AfD: Weidel announced that she and her family had to leave her Swiss apartment due to a threat. Chrupalla said he was poisoned on the sidelines of a campaign rally – which turned out to be medically incorrect.

This is the result of this election night: the claim that the AfD will soon shrink to an East German regional party has proven to be false. 15 percent plus for a right-wing to right-wing extremist party – that is now the reality for the whole of Germany.

This article first appeared on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the headings and subheadings. Click here for the original.