Balkan expert explains why situation will not escalate: “Serbia is on the defensive again”

There remains fuel for escalation

But everyone is still nervous. The mood is still heated. Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani (41) even called the events an attempted annexation “based on Putin’s model” in an interview with “Welt”. NATO does not expect a de-escalation yet: 200 British KFOR soldiers reached northern Kosovo on Friday. Reinforcement at the border in case something else happens.

So the situation hasn’t calmed down yet? “Not yet,” says Jakov Devčić, political scientist and head of the Montenegro/Serbia office at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation. “But the situation will calm down.” Why there will be no escalation.

Shortly after the attack, the US strongly demanded that those responsible for the violence be held accountable – whether it was Serbia or Kosovo. The pressure from the West seems to be having an effect quickly. “Serbia is working with Western partners and the government insists that it ‘will neither wage war nor allow Pristina Serbs to be persecuted’, positioning itself in the middle between liberal and nationalist opposition groups,” Devčić said.

The incident in northern Kosovo has shifted the balance. Serbia is once again on the defensive in the dispute with Kosovo, Kosovo has the upper hand. Serbia is again the ‘bad guy’, which President Aleksandar Vučić (53) continues to deny. The act he condemns is an expression of the desperation of Serbs harassed in Pristina. However, such solo efforts were detrimental to his country. After all, negotiations with Kosovo recently went in Belgrade’s favor.

Devčić explains: “Kosovo is waging a diplomatic offensive against Serbia with the aim of turning Western opinion in its favor.” Things were very different a few weeks ago, when Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti was seen as primarily responsible for the lack of progress in the normalization process.

“The danger here lies with the Serbs in the north: whether some groups act independently, angry and provoked by what they see as discrimination against them and an attack on the Serb community,” Devčić said. This could lead to further escalation. “It only takes a few dozen people armed with small arms to spark a major conflict.”