Favorite with bookmakers – experts are skeptical: will Zelenskiy get the Nobel Peace Prize?

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2023 is the next year of war in Ukraine, but also a year in which heat waves, floods and other extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, will strike more often and more intensely than ever before. Even beyond these big issues, crises and conflicts dominate the world, from China’s threatening gestures against Taiwan to military coups in Africa and distribution battles over increasingly scarce resources.

How does the Nobel Peace Prize fit into this world situation? Should the most important political award on earth be recognition of those who stand in the way of autocrats and warmongers? Or should people and organizations be honored who fight for a better world, far away from the sources of military conflict?

This time, 351 candidates were nominated for the prize, including 259 individuals and 92 organizations. Only in 2016 were there more nominations, when there were 376. Those who were among the candidates and came away empty-handed will not be announced publicly after the award ceremony. The Nobel institutions keep the lists secret for 50 years – this is precisely what fuels speculation before they are released each year.

The guesswork before the announcement and the often divergent opinions afterwards are as much a part of the Nobel Prize as the hefty prize money and the prestigious Nobel Medal.

Diversity of peace

Who ultimately becomes the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize always depends on how the term peace is interpreted. Some people argue that the goal should be to bring peace – and that the prize should therefore go to people who have ended wars.

Last year, the Nobel Committee once again proved that it also includes human rights in its definition of peacemaking. The imprisoned Belarusian human rights lawyer Ales Bialyazki (61) and the human rights organizations Memorial from Russia and Center for Civil Liberties from Ukraine received the Nobel Prize at the time. In view of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the situation in Belarus, experts also saw this as a signal to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70), Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko (69) and other autocrats.

Dmitri Muratow (61) was honored in 2021. After the outbreak of war, the editor-in-chief of the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta auctioned his medal for $103.5 million. The proceeds went to Ukrainian refugee children.

Zelensky favorite with bookmakers

Will the Nobel Prize again have to do with Russia or Ukraine? A British betting office names Ukrainian President Zelensky (45) as the top favorite, and the jailed Kremlin opponent Alexei Navalny (47) and Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanowskaya (41) are again among the favorites.

Peace researchers do not count these names among their top favorites. The argument against Zelensky is that he and Ukraine are still at war. Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm peace research institute Sipri, said: “If it becomes possible to lead his country towards a peaceful future, it would be such a huge achievement that he would be a very deserving candidate for the award. But he is not there yet.”

Who could win the Nobel Prize instead? Oslo Peace Research Institute Prio director Henrik Urdal’s annual favorites list includes human rights activists Narges Mohammadi from Iran and Mahbuba Seraj from Afghanistan. “History has shown us that respect for human rights is inextricably linked to peaceful societies,” Urdal said.

Nobel Prize for Fridays for Future?

Smith, on the other hand, thought it would be a good idea if the focus this time was on a topic other than human rights. That would underline the scope of the prize and that much is needed for peace – including the fight for climate protection.

“I think it is time to shift the focus to climate change and its links to insecurity and conflict. And our global need for more peaceful relations so that great powers can work together to reduce greenhouse gases and slow climate change,” said Smith. The committee has awarded Nobel Prizes for environmental protection in the past. “And I’m sure they can do it again.”

Smith has a suggestion in this regard: half of the Nobel Prize could go to the Fridays for Future climate movement, initiated by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg (20), and the other half could honor the important contributions of indigenous peoples to the subject . for example Person of the Brazilian chef Raoni Metuktire (93). “This would be the perfect prize because it covers so many aspects,” Smith is convinced. Young activism would be taken into account, as well as a much older form of wisdom, the Briton said. “I think we need to find a new balance with nature. And indigenous people and leaders can help us do that.” (SDA/jvd)

Source: Blick