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The conflict between Serbia and Kosovo reaches a climax. The Kosovo government accuses Serbia of moving the army and police to the border between the two states. The advance serves “a possible military aggression against the Republic of Kosovo.” Just a week ago, heavily armed Serbs attacked Kosovo police officers in northern Kosovo, resulting in fatalities. The EU described the incident as a “terrorist attack”.

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has now warned against further escalation. “At this point I also call on Serbia to reduce its troops on the border,” she said on Sunday at the small party conference of the German Greens.

Why is the situation in the region currently escalating? And what does the EU plan to do to counter this? An overview:

What is the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia about?

After the collapse of the multi-ethnic state of Yugoslavia, there were a series of wars in the Balkans in the 1990s. Under nationalist president Slobodan Milošević, Serbia attempted to incorporate Serb-majority areas into other republics. As a result, ethnically motivated expulsions, extensive ‘ethnic cleansing’ and war crimes took place, especially in Bosnia and Croatia, but also in Kosovo.

To stop the massacres in the Serbian province of Kosovo, inhabited mainly by Albanians, NATO decided to launch air strikes in 1999, in which Germany also took part. It was the first combat mission by German soldiers since 1945. With the NATO intervention, Kosovo broke away from the Serbian state and eventually declared its independence in 2008. In the meantime, the country was governed by the UN mission Unmik. Today, 117 states recognize Kosovo as independent, including Germany. Other EU countries, such as Spain, do not recognize independence.

Serbia refuses to recognize Kosovo and considers the country a breakaway southern Serbian territory. Serbia is actively campaigning abroad to urge other states to withdraw recognition of Kosovo.

The EU demands that Serbia recognize the country so that it can become a member of the community of states. As part of the KFOR mission, NATO also provides military personnel, including those from the Bundeswehr, to assist in securing public order in Kosovo.

Kosovo is predominantly inhabited by Albanians, while Serbs live mainly in the north. Many of them do not recognize Kosovo’s state institutions.

How has the situation developed in recent months?

The conflict between the two states has long been more tense than it already was. By the end of 2022, there were already mass protests in northern Kosovo. Serbs blocked the roads to the border with Serbia with trucks. Government plans to hold local elections in Serb-majority areas on December 18 had to be put on hold.

In May, the situation escalated again: in the Serb-dominated town of Zvečan and two surrounding communities, Kosovars of Albanian descent marched to the town halls – the Serb population had boycotted the votes. When the new mayor of Zvečan was brought to the city under police protection, the situation escalated.

There were street battles between Kosovars of Serb origin and NATO soldiers from the KFOR protection force. 30 soldiers and about 50 Serbs were injured.

According to experts, the majority of Serbian demonstrators were not ordinary civilians, but activists. «It is known that the government of Vučić [Anm. d. Red.: die serbische Regierung] maintains parallel structures in the Serb-dominated areas of Kosovo,” the scientific director of the Balkan Research Department of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Oliver Jens Schmitt, said at the time.

What is known about the attack on police officers in Kosovo?

According to Kosovo information, a 30-member, heavily armed Serbian commando group ambushed Kosovo police officers in the town of Banjska near Mitrovica a week ago and killed one police officer. The fighters then barricaded themselves in an Orthodox monastery and exchanged fire with police. Three of the attackers were killed.

Last Friday, five days later, Kosovo Serb politician and businessman Milan Radoičić claimed responsibility for the attack. He claimed that he carried out the action on his own initiative and had not informed any official authorities in Serbia. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti believes that there is no solo effort by Radoičić. For example, some weapons found in the monastery could only be obtained from government authorities, he said.

In addition, Radoičić’s group is said to have previously trained on Serbian soil. Kurti published satellite images on the “X” platform (formerly Twitter) that are supposed to prove this:

The Kosovo Minister of the Interior According to him, the exercises took place at the Serbian military base Kopaonik near the border and in Pasuljanske Livade, one of the largest military training areas in Serbia. Further exercises were said to have been carried out on Radoičić’s property.

What is the situation currently?

On Saturday, Kosovo’s leadership sounded the alarm in Pristina: Serbia had advanced its army towards Kosovo – “from three different directions”, the country said in a press release. On Friday, Serbia sent army and police to 48 forward bases along the border with Kosovo, on Serbian territory a few kilometers from the border.

Serbia deployed anti-aircraft systems and heavy artillery. The advance serves “a possible military aggression against the Republic of Kosovo,” the report said.

Serbian President Aleksander Vučić, in an interview with the Financial Times, denied any intention to launch a military attack on Kosovo. Instead, he will order the withdrawal of Serbian troops, saying an escalation would be “counterproductive” for Belgrade’s EU aspirations. Serbia will not destroy its own years of efforts. “Serbia does not want war,” he told the newspaper. Accusations from the West are “a campaign of lies,” Vučić added in a video address on Instagram.

How does the West respond?

The US has made an unusually clear call for Serbia to de-escalate. National Security Council Communications Director John Kirby spoke of an “unprecedented” array of artillery and tanks. “We call on Serbia to withdraw these troops from the border,” Kirby said in Washington.

In addition, the contingent of NATO soldiers in Kosovo must be expanded. Britain’s Ministry of Defense said on Sunday that 200 additional soldiers would join the 400-strong British contingent as part of an annual exercise in Kosovo. This is in response to a request from NATO.

A NATO spokesman cited the attack on Kosovo police on September 24 and “increasing tensions in the region” as the reason. He called on both Belgrade and Pristina for dialogue. This is the only way “lasting peace” can be achieved.

In Germany too, the call within the traffic light coalition is becoming increasingly louder to station more German troops in Kosovo. Politicians from the FDP, SPD and Greens spoke out in favor of this. “Germany, in consultation with its allies, must quickly check whether the KFOR mandate is fully fulfilled and send more soldiers to Kosovo,” Greens politician Anton Hofreiter told Spiegel.

The chairman of the Defense Committee in the Bundestag, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), told the magazine that more German soldiers would be moved if necessary. SPD foreign politician Adis Ahmetović explained: “We must provide the KFOR mandate with more armed forces.”

How are the negotiations going?

The EU has been trying to negotiate between the two states for some time. Both have applied to become members of the EU. In the spring, the two countries, led by Germany and France, struck an agreement to normalize relations, which was seen as a ray of hope. The agreement imposes measures on both states.

Serbia is obliged to de facto recognize Kosovo’s independence. Legal recognition is not required; Serbia should change its constitution, which considers Kosovo part of its national territory. The Serbian government should also give up its blockade position so that Kosovo could join international organizations. That hasn’t happened yet.

Kosovo should grant more autonomy to the Serb-majority region in the north of the country. The Kosovo parliament has already approved this, but Prime Minister Kurti is strongly against it. He fears that this will give Serbia more influence in the state of Kosovo and could block it.

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