Military experts analyze: that’s why Putin really invaded Ukraine

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An ‘existential threat to the West from NATO’, the ‘liberation of the Russian-speaking people in the Donbass’ or the ‘denazification and demilitarization’ of Ukraine. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the same arguments were repeated like a prayer wheel about why the “special military operation,” as Moscow officially calls the war, was necessary.

It was clear early on that the Kremlin leadership’s arguments were hardly valid. However, it remains unclear what exactly motivated Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) to invade. Now the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is trying to shed light on the matter.

Accordingly, Putin did not invade the neighboring country for fear of a direct confrontation with NATO. The Kremlin boss previously believed that the Western defense alliance was extremely weak and that he could quickly and easily regain control of Ukraine. Since the invasion of Donbass in 2014, Putin has deployed various means at the political and military level, the military experts analyze.

Pandemic bubble as a catalyst

The Kremlin has developed a close partnership with NATO member Hungary. The goal: to block resolutions related to Ukraine’s possible NATO membership. The Kremlin also launched “a targeted campaign to co-opt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at an early stage,” the ISW wrote in the report. The main goal: the division of the NATO countries – and ultimately the destruction of the military alliance.

After years of efforts at the political level, Putin sank into an “ideological and self-reflective bubble” during the pandemic, the analysis continues. The Kremlin boss became increasingly obsessed with the idea of ​​controlling Ukraine. Putin increasingly believed that Russia had been humiliated by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. “Putin is obsessed with the past and has lost interest in the present,” Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar, 42, wrote in an article in the New York Times in 2022.

Diplomatic solution ‘hardly conceivable’

The ISW analyzes that Ukraine’s ability to join NATO was not the main focus of the invasion. At the time of the invasion, Ukraine was far from joining and no progress had been made in negotiations for years. Rather, the focus was on Russia’s expansion of power, its conquest of Ukraine and the destruction of NATO as an alliance – and: Putin’s personal revenge on the West for the period after the end of the Soviet Union.

Due to Putin’s deeply held views, a solution at a diplomatic level is hardly conceivable, the ISW writes. In recent weeks, Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he is ready for talks – but only on Russian terms. This includes, for example, the recognition by the West of the annexed Crimean peninsula as Russian territory.

For the think tank’s experts it is clear: “There is no other path to peace than inflicting a clear military defeat on Russia. This war can only end when Putin knows he cannot win.”

Source: Blick