A shift to the left in Slovakia could weaken support for Ukraine. She was the oldest member of the US Senate: Dianne Feinstein died at the age of 90

Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has a good chance to form the next government in Bratislava. His left-wing national ‘Direction – Slovak Social Democracy’ (Smer-SSD) won the parliamentary elections on Saturday. As the electoral commission reported on Sunday, the previous opposition party received 22.9 percent of the votes according to the provisional final results, after counting 99.98 percent of the electoral districts.

Second place went to the liberal party ‘Progressive Slovakia’ (PS), which is not yet represented in parliament and is led by EU MP Michal Simecka, with 18 percent. In the first forecasts after the end of the elections, the PS was even in the lead, ahead of the Smer-SSD. Turnout was 68.5 percent of the 4.4 million eligible voters.

Unpopular arms deliveries

The future direction of the foreign policy of the EU and NATO country, which directly borders Ukraine, will depend on who will lead the new government. So far, Slovakia has been one of the most determined political and military supporters of its Russian-attacked neighbor. But Fico and the small right-wing populist ‘Slovak National Party’ SNS want to put an end to arms aid to Ukraine – which is unpopular with the population. However, all other parties in parliament are in favor of further arms deliveries.

On Sunday it was considered likely that Fico would invite the third-placed party ‘Voice – Social Democracy’ (Hlas-SD) of his former deputy Peter Pellegrini to coalition talks. This more liberal social democratic party split from Fico’s Smer-SSD three years ago and was now in third place with 14.7 percent. Fico and Pellegrini agree that Slovakia needs a strong welfare state. However, their positions differ on the issue of aid to Ukraine.

While Fico only wants to help the neighboring country with civilian goods, Pellegrini is just as positive about military aid as the civilian parties. Against Fico, he still has the trump card up his sleeve that he could also form a coalition with the liberal party ‘Progressive Slovakia’, which recently entered parliament. Fico, on the other hand, has no other coalition option. Who will lead the next government will therefore mainly depend on Hlas-SD.

Potential left-wing alliance

Pellegrini’s deputy party leader Erik Tomas said in a TV interview on Sunday that Hlas-SD was ready for coalition negotiations with Fico’s party. Shortly afterwards, Pellegrini softened his position, saying he was also open to talks with other parties if they accepted his demands. In any case, at least one other party is required for a parliamentary majority.

In addition to these three strongest parties, four smaller parties reached parliament in Bratislava. The right-wing populist and pro-Russian ‘Slovak National Party’ SNS had already announced before the elections that it wanted to enter into a joint government with Ficos Smer. However, the three other small parties are staunch opponents of Fico. They could help a coalition between PS and Hlas-SD gain a majority against Fico. This would also guarantee continued military support to Ukraine.

The early parliamentary elections became necessary after a four-party conservative-populist-liberal coalition that won against Fico in 2020 collapsed due to internal conflict. In December, the rest of this coalition lost a vote of no confidence, but was able to postpone early elections for months. In May, President Zuzana Caputova temporarily appointed a cabinet of officials led by financial expert Ludovit Odor. Fico, who previously suffered from corruption scandals among his colleagues, benefited from the fact that his opponents acted so chaotically. (sda/dpa)