Massive attacks in Crimea: Putin loses control in the Black Sea The ‘vomit hill’ remains a place that foreigners should be ashamed of

Ukrainian missiles hit the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Ukrainian grain ships leave the port again: the Ukrainian counter-offensive also seems to be successful on the high seas. Kiev has been sending missiles and drones towards Crimea for weeks – and is celebrating its success.

This does not only include hits such as those on a docked submarine or expensive radar systems. The Russian Navy appears to be slowly retreating. On Thursday, Natalia Humeniuk, spokeswoman for the South Ukrainian Armed Forces, reported that landing craft had been withdrawn from the port of Sevastopol. This is the main port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In addition to the general uncertainty caused by the waves of attacks, the attacks likely have another goal: regaining sovereignty over at least part of the Black Sea.

There are also economic reasons for this: a large part of Ukrainian grain was exported by ship. Russia initially blocked the routes, then agreed to a grain deal and eventually withdrew. “Their goal is essentially to stifle us economically,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister of Ukraine and now an adviser to the Defense Ministry, told the US magazine Newsweek.

To prevent this, it is important to destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet. ‘There is no other option. And we must pursue this option until it is realized,” Zagorodnyuk said.

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, also points to the increased activities. When asked if Crimea would be retaken, he said in an interview with “The Drive”:

Moreover, the Ukrainian attacks “demonstrate the obvious incompetence of Russia’s air defense systems, making them less lucrative on global arms markets,” Budanov said.

A grain freighter breaks through the sea blockade again

There can hardly be any question of Russian control over the shipping routes anymore. The grain cargo ship “Aroyat” left the Ukrainian port of Chernomorsk on Friday, despite the Russian naval blockade. The ship is on its way to Egypt with 17,600 tons of grain, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olexander Kubrakow said on Facebook on Friday. The Palau-flagged “Aroyat” was the second cargo ship to enter and exit Ukraine’s temporary maritime corridor, he pointed out.

However, no naval battle will take place due to the lack of a Ukrainian navy. Therefore, Kiev has adopted a different strategy: attacking infrastructure such as air defense systems and radar systems, weakening air defenses with swarms of drones and targeted attacks with medium-range missiles. British Storm Shadow missiles were reportedly used in the attack on the fleet’s headquarters, British broadcaster Sky News reported.

“Ukraine is identifying and developing these vulnerabilities in Russia’s defense in Crimea,” Andriy Ryzhenko, a retired Ukrainian navy captain and now a strategic expert at defense and logistics consultancy Sonata, told Newsweek. In particular, the destruction of air defense facilities, Ryschenko said, “will increase the intensity of the battle.”

Concerns in the US about the effectiveness of the attacks

These attacks are not universally seen as more useful. An unnamed senior US defense official recently told US broadcaster CNN: “It has thrown the Russians off balance a bit, but it doesn’t achieve anything decisive… And it would probably be better for everyone if they just focused on concentrated counter-offensive. .»

Soldiers from the Black Sea Fleet are also deployed at the front. As the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Thursday: “Elements of the Black Sea Fleet’s 810th Marine Infantry Brigade are engaged in critical defensive operations in the western Zaporizhia Oblast, and the Black Sea Fleet’s 22nd Army Corps is involved in critical defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Black Sea Fleet defends positions on the eastern shore of Kherson Oblast.”

In addition to the actual damage to military equipment, Kiev apparently also focuses on the psychological effects. The intention is to cause the Russian military leadership, but also the population, to become restless. It is not just missiles and drones that are hitting Crimea. In July, Ukrainian intelligence reported that explosions at ammunition depots near Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula were caused by sabotage.

The intelligence chief relies on uncertainty

“Most of these efforts are likely to be coordinated actions with Ukrainian special forces, significantly contributing to their tactical disruption,” writes the Kyiv Independent. The most active group here is called ‘Atesh’, which translates to fire. Its members belong to the Tatar minority.

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, is well aware of the psychological impact. For example, the domestically developed naval drones cause damage to ships, but can hardly destroy the Russian fleet. But, Budanow says, they create uncertainty. The massive attacks have paralyzed the Russian fleet, the intelligence chief said. “Their ships do not go further north than where the attacks on Sevastopol took place.”

According to British intelligence, Ukraine has found an Achilles heel: Russian supply lines across the sea. This could also have consequences for Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine.

With the massive attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Kiev may have come one step closer to weakening the Russian fleet and sovereignty in the Black Sea.

Sources