Early Monday morning, residents of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv were again startled by Russian attacks. Humming kamikazedrons hovered over the city all day long. The police tried to shoot them out of the sky, but they didn’t always succeed. At least four people were killed.

These kamikazedrons are made in Iran and have caused tremendous damage. “Ukrainians describe it as if a big moped is hovering over the city,” says Bob Deen, Eastern Europe expert at the Clingendael Institute. “They are valued at around €20,000, a lot cheaper than a precision rocket worth millions of euros. Russia is now using them in large numbers because they know many of them will be shot down before they come down. And because their precision ammunition is running low.”

The drones make a distinctive sound as they swoop towards their target:

The drones fly low and in small swarms, making it difficult to shoot them all out of the sky. They can be loaded with dozens of kilograms of explosives and fly towards their target via GPS. Fired from a truck.

“Putin has previously said that he will no longer launch large-scale attacks on Ukraine,” Deen said. “He has said that Russia will continue precision bombing of power plants and other critical infrastructure. This seems somewhat consistent with that. A number of power plants were hit and one of the attacks in Kyiv took place near the Ukrainian headquarters. So this could fit back into the strategy of shrouding Ukraine in darkness and giving it a really bad winter.”

Although Iran denies taking sides in the war or exporting arms to Russia, it is clear that the fallen drones came from Iran. The country will also supply heavy missile systems to Russia, according to the Washington Post.

“That would be a real problem for Ukraine,” says Deen. “Iran has its own missile program and is developing missiles itself. If they start exporting them, they can fill the shortage of medium- and long-range missiles that Russia has. Then Russia can attack Ukraine longer.”

Securing the entire country against missiles and drones will be difficult for Ukraine, Deen believes. “The country is simply too big for that. Their defense will mainly focus on the energy and nuclear facilities and the government buildings in the capital. But the Ukrainians will have to learn to live with the constant risk.”

long-distance relationship

Still, one cannot say that Russia and Iran are two hands on one stomach, says Erwin van Veen, Middle East expert at the Clingendael Institute. “I would describe it more as a lat relationship. You can’t really call them strategic partners, but they are good friends when it counts.”

In July, the Americans announced for the first time that the country would deliver the Sahed-136 drones. According to Ukraine, Iran has now delivered 2,400 of these drones to Russia. The country has developed and produced these and more advanced drones despite severe international sanctions.

“It’s quite a nice achievement,” says Van Veen. “Since the Iraq-Iran war, when Iran launched Saddam Hussein’s missiles at the big cities, they have invested heavily in their military-industrial complex. And they’ve been able to outsmart American technology a few times, too, like using a design here and there. to steal.”

The US has already imposed additional sanctions on Iran over the drone deliveries. And the European Union also spoke about new sanctions today. Iran won’t sleep over it, Van Veen suspects. “I can’t think of any country other than North Korea that is already so heavily sanctioned. Also, any sanctions evasion routes they came up with are long gone, so no doubt they will find another way to get out of it sanely.”

iron dome

Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for more weapons from the West to better protect itself against Russian missiles and drones. Since the beginning of the war, President Zelenskyy has asked for military support from Israel. This country has the highly effective Iron Dome missile defense system, which Ukraine would like to have. After the news about Iranian missile deliveries, the Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs changed his mind.

“The call for guns is growing,” said Israel correspondent Ties Brock. “But for now, Israel is only providing helmets, field hospitals and intelligence services. And not the Iron Dome or other anti-aircraft guns. Because Israel does not want to jeopardize relations with Russia. Israel needs Russia to be able to bomb enemies in Syria, where Russia has airspace. And these own security interests outweigh Israel’s military aid to Ukraine.”