Hoping for war fatigue: this is how Russia wants to bring the counter-offensive to a halt

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The Ukrainian counter-offensive has gained momentum after initial difficulties. According to the two military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, the Ukrainians have momentum on their side, as ‘Focus’ writes. Almost every day, Ukrainian troops liberate village after village and advance further and further east – much to the chagrin of the Russian troops.

They are trying with all their might to slow down the progress of the Ukrainians, writes “Focus”. What Russia now relies on is the strategic concept of “active defense” that Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov has implemented, the two experts said. This consists of a mix of defensive maneuvers and counter-attacks.

Russia wants to stop the counter-offensive

This means that the Russian military leadership regularly rotates troops at the front to alternately carry out offensive and defensive operations. The desperation of the Russians in Ukraine has gone so far that troops have been withdrawn from Kupyansk and other regions to support the men on the front.

Ukraine’s military leadership also sees Russia increasingly focusing on defense. “The basic task of the Russians at the moment is to reduce hostilities for at least four to five months,” Mykhailo Podoljak (51), advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (45), wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday.

How should this work? The Russian goal is to drastically reduce the intensity of Ukrainian attacks so that the counter-offensive comes to a standstill. According to the two experts Kofman and Lee, this is important for Russia because Russia wants to maneuver as many reserves and troops as possible to the front through trench warfare.

Putin hopes for ‘coalition of war-weary’

Moreover, Russia is still hoping for a long war – because that would play into the aggressor’s hands, Kofman and Lee agree. Or in the words of advisor Podolyak: Russia is trying to put together a ‘coalition of war-weary’.

The longer the war continues, the more likely it is that Ukraine’s allies will reduce or even end support for Ukraine. At least that is the hope of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) and his military leadership.

But while Putin hopes that war fatigue will set in, Kiev is trying to successfully end the war as quickly as possible. Because: “Any pause will inevitably lead to further escalation,” Podoljak writes. “It is important to recognize that only Russian military defeats in the occupied territories will lead to a realistic prospect of peace.” (chs)

Source: Blick