The odds are good for Ukraine, but a certain mistake would be a ‘catastrophic’ election farce in Russia – no candidate even appears for the TV debate

According to independent observers, Ukrainian forces have apparently made further progress in recent days in their efforts to liberate areas in the south of the country that Russia has occupied in violation of international law.

The counter-offensive launched in early June is beginning to yield positive results for Ukraine, although the Ukrainian army is not making progress as quickly as it had expected. It continues to face bitter resistance from the Russian occupiers, which is why many Western observers now wonder whether this war could turn into a protracted trench war.

“Then the Russians have the opportunity to dig in again.”

Military expert Carlo Masala does not necessarily share this pessimism. According to his assessment, Ukraine has a good chance of decisively breaking through Russia’s defense lines by the end of the year. “Yes, that is realistic,” Masala told the newspapers of media group Funke when asked whether he shared the assessment of the US military intelligence Defense Intelligence Agency, according to which Ukraine has a 40 to 50 percent chance of destroying the remaining Russian defenses to win. overcome lines.

However, the Munich professor makes the success of the counter-offensive dependent on several factors:

It is crucial that the Ukrainian armed forces can keep the Russian units moving. “If they don’t succeed, the Russians have the opportunity to dig in again.”

However, the Ukrainian government repeatedly criticizes what it sees as the hesitant arms supplies from Western allies. The country is particularly short of ammunition, spare parts and artillery systemsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently criticized this again.

Masala only partially agrees with the criticism:

Ukraine would like 500 to 600 main battle tanks. “The West cannot deliver this in modern systems because it does not have them. This applies, for example, to the Type 2A4 Leopard tanks of the Bundeswehr.”

“That happened much too late”

However, Zelensky is right about sending ammunition. “The West is only now starting to really ramp up ammunition production. That happened much too late. And this also applies to short-range air defense. One of the major problems of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was the selective air superiority of the Russians over their own mechanized units.

The fact that the allies are now supplying Western F16 fighter jets could help minimize Ukrainian losses, Masala said. “In addition, the Ukrainians would be able to act even more forcefully with mechanized units because they could be protected from the air.”

Masala warns against giving in to Putin’s demands

So far, the Ukrainians have had to make do with their counter-offensive without the air support that is actually essential for a counter-offensive. Therefore, their forces were repeatedly wiped out by heavy Russian artillery fire and helicopter gunships. Numerous Western weapons systems, including valuable tanks, were destroyed. But many soldiers also died.

Masala also criticized alleged plans by the United Nations (UN) to force the government in Moscow to… Relaxation of Western sanctions to encourage a return to the grain agreement. UN Secretary General António Guterres recently sent a letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announcing far-reaching concessions. Accordingly, they want to include a subsidiary of the Russian Bank for Agriculture back into the Swift agreement. The bank is state-owned and would therefore be reconnected with the international financial system. Masala explains:

“This would mean that Russia would be asserting one of its central demands.” He further warned:

So far, Russia has refused to resume the grain deal with Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had also offered the Kremlin extensive compensation for his demands. But Putin rejected the resumption during a meeting with Erdoğan in Sochi, as the dictator apparently hopes to extract more concessions from the West.

(t-online/cc, with material from Reuters)