Ukrainian secret service: Russia can hold out for a maximum of another year. Europeans will become impoverished, Americans will become richer: this is a warning for Switzerland

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service HUR believes that Russia will not continue its war of aggression against Ukraine for more than another year. “I don’t believe this will be a long-term battle,” Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov said on Saturday at the Yalta European Strategy Congress (YES) in Kiev, according to a report by US news portal Newsweek.

He relies on “the analysis of the data we have about our enemies,” Budanov explains. And the intelligence chief seemed convinced of victory: “Physically they cannot hold out for long,” Budanov said. “If you’re talking about six months, seven months, to a year, and you think this is long and long term, then you’re absolutely right.”

“Definitely insufficient level”

According to his assessment, the war could end with a Ukrainian victory before the end of 2024. Since Russia has not fought with a professional army since last fall, Budanov said: “Today they are fighting in a mobilized manner.” Moreover, the production of new weapons and equipment is “at a completely inadequate level”.

Recently, there have been doubts in the West about the resounding success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive currently underway. So far, Kiev’s forces have broken through the first of three Russian defense lines near the town of Robotyne in the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhia. It is said that more than 1.5 square kilometers of additional land gains have been made there, as Ukraine reported.

Zelenskyj sees “progress” in the counter-offensive

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has also spoken of progress on the front. “Progress has been made in the past seven days,” he said in his daily video address on Sunday. There is movement both in southern Ukraine in the Zaporizhia region and around the Russian-occupied city of Bakhmut. In other sectors of the front, positions were successfully defended against Russian attacks, he added. The information could not be independently verified.

HUR boss Budanov confirmed Ukraine’s progress: “We are making progress slowly but surely.” The counter-offensive is still ongoing, but is not progressing as quickly as “I would like,” the intelligence officer explained. In particular, heavily mined areas, well-prepared Russian defenses and the widespread use of artillery and a large number of kamikaze drones slowed down the operations of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Moreover, changing weather conditions may occur in Ukraine within a few weeks. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley told the BBC that Kiev’s troops still had 30 to 45 days before colder and wetter conditions – the so-called mud season – would arrive.

“The seasonal heavy rains and heavy mud in late autumn will slow ground movements on both sides, and the low temperatures pose a number of logistical challenges,” experts from the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said at the assessing the situation. situation one. Nevertheless, these conditions did not put an end to the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the ISW said in its report on Sunday: Frost in winter would make the movements of motorized units easier again.

The head of the intelligence service wants to stick to the war objectives

Intelligence chief Budanov demanded that Ukraine continue pursuing its maximalist war aims: “Any other option would only freeze this war,” he said. “Mutual drone attacks will continue if we do not return to the internationally recognized border.” Ukraine’s war aim is the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014 in violation of international law.

The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory put the population into “panic mode,” HUR boss Budanov explained. He referred to the temporary disruption of civil air traffic and reports of an increase in insurance purchases in Russia. This is “a clear sign of panic,” Budanow said. Only on Monday morning did Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, report thwarted drone attacks from the neighboring country.

Apart from that, the war has also hit Russia’s economy hard, Budanov said: “The war has not helped Putin’s regime: the economy is not holding up, that’s a fact,” the intelligence chief said. “Finances are maintained through reserves, and military strength has declined sharply during the war,” he concluded. Nevertheless: Putin’s regime is no longer that powerful, ‘but it is still not a defeated enemy, and you cannot just say that absolutely everything is bad with them. They adapt.”

(t-online/sic, with material from dpa)