Why India won’t become the new China ‘Lee’ becomes a hurricane: extreme danger for Caribbean islands

The country dresses up and the prime minister blows himself up. “We will use the time of our G-20 presidency to present India’s experience as a possible model for others,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said ahead of next weekend’s summit. Sushant Singh, a lecturer at Yale University, summarizes his intentions in “Foreign Affairs” as follows: “India wants to become a great power under Modi and usher in a new era of global prosperity and peace.”

It is not the first time that the world is healing from the Indian essence. Even during the Cold War, the country saw itself as the leader of the non-aligned states, the countries that wanted neither capitalist America nor the communist Soviet Union. At the time, however, India’s influence remained manageable, and it is also questionable whether this will work better the second time around.

India is still a very poor country

India is now the largest country in the world by population. Unlike the West and China, the country is not affected by the aging of its population. 40 percent of the population is under 25 years old. Despite this, India is still a very poor country. This year, the average per capita income will be around $2,600. By comparison, China’s annual average per capita income is more than twice as high, at around $6,000. That is why Modi wants to create an economic miracle just like his eternal rival China. It is unlikely that he will succeed.

The latest figures raise high expectations. India’s gross domestic product rose by more than 9 percent last year, and the International Monetary Fund expects growth of 6 percent this year as well. However, the Indian-American economist Ashoka Mody doubts whether this will be the beginning of an economic miracle à la China. Rather, he believes in a flash in the pan. The current boom is a response to the Covid slump and not sustainable, Mody said in an interview with the ‘NZZ’.

Mody sees a major reason for India’s weak economy in the Indian school system. Although countries such as China and South Korea have made great efforts in basic education, the vast majority of Indians are poorly educated. Not even a limited tech elite can hide this. That is why Mody gave his recently published book the self-explanatory title ‘India Is Broken’, explaining: ‘If there is no progress in education, then there will be no sustainable economic growth. India’s political elite overlooks this.”

On the geopolitical front, India has had some successes in recent months. US President Joe Biden received Modi with honors at the White House. French President Emmanuel Macron also rolled out the red carpet for him. Both did it less out of respect or even affection. It is about realpolitik: India will side with the West in the titanic battle with China and Russia.

Modi’s calculations are also incorrect in his own country. China’s population is largely ethnically uniform – 1.3 billion Han Chinese – and Muslims in Xinjiang province and Tibetans are forcibly forced to conform.

India, on the other hand, is very different. “India is one of the most diverse countries in the world,” says Sushant Singh. “It is home to people from thousands of different cultures and communities. It can’t work if these populations fight each other.”

Lots of internal conflicts

However, this is exactly the case not only between Hindus and Muslims. In the state of Manipur, for example, a bloody battle is currently raging between two ethnic communities, the Meiteis and the Kuki, which have already claimed hundreds of lives. The Meiteis are Hindus, the Kuki followers of an ancient animistic religion. Therefore, they are pursued by the Meiteis. They are accused of not being Indians at all, but illegal immigrants from Myanmar.

The conflict between Meiteis and Kukis may seem relatively minor at first glance. Manpiur is located about 1,600 kilometers from New Delhi and has only three million inhabitants. However, the conflict is typical of the domestic political situation.

India prides itself on being a multi-ethnic state that protects the rights of minorities. But in reality, Hindu nationalism, called Hindutva, is on the rise. “While this nationalism has existed for decades, it has now gained much more power than ever before,” Singh said.

Prime Minister Modi feeds this nationalism as best he can. Lately he has been toying with the idea of ​​renaming India “Bharat,” an ancient Hindu name denoting a great empire that includes not only India, but also parts of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India. Tibet included.

Rising nationalism, internal conflict and a struggling economy keep Modi from achieving lofty dreams. “The fact is that India will have a hard time playing on the global stage as long as the government mainly deals with internal conflicts,” Singh summarized.