The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) expects the war in Ukraine to continue into the coming year. “Both sides to the conflict in the Ukraine war are still seeking a decision on the battlefield,” BND President Bruno Kahl, 60, said Monday during a public hearing in the Bundestag’s parliamentary audit committee. “It is almost certain that the fighting will continue next year.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) is concerned about the perception of Russia as a superpower, Kahl said. In a “cost-benefit calculation” he was prepared to “accept the military, economic and political costs of a war of aggression against Ukraine”. Because it seemed to him that “the costs to Russia would be considerably higher in the future (…) as a result of Ukraine’s further rapprochement with the West and NATO.”
Russia also reserves the right to use nuclear weapons for the first time. In a regionally limited scenario, these could be used “to offset the enemy’s conventional superiority and to dominate military escalation,” Kahl said. The goal would be “to force the adversary back to the negotiating table through an escalated use of strategic nuclear weapons and then get them to agree to a dictated peace.”
« Declaration of war against the entire western world »
However, Kahl saw no interest from Putin in a genuine negotiated solution in talks with the West. Because for him the “greatest threat” is the spread of “the Western social model of freedom and democracy”. From his point of view, this “existentially” jeopardizes his rule. Ultimately, Putin in the conflict “is not primarily about the territory of Ukraine (…) He is about a declaration of war on the entire western free and democratic world”.
Once a year, a public hearing of the presidents of the German intelligence services takes place in the parliamentary audit committee. In addition to BND boss Kahl, the chairman of the Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution, Thomas Haldenwang (62) and the chairman of the Military Counterintelligence Service, Martina Rosenberg (52), will answer questions from the deputies on Monday.