Military expert classifies Russian defense strategy: this is how Gerasimov managed to contain Ukraine’s offensive

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Seven weeks ago, Ukraine launched its counter-offensive. After the short-lived Wagner uprising against Moscow and the withdrawal of the Russians on the defensive, there have been renewed attacks on both sides in recent days – civilian targets have also been hit.

Not much is known about the exact Russian defense strategy. However, Mick Ryan, American military expert, now explains in detail how Valeri Gerasimov (67), Chief of Staff of the Russian leadership, could have assessed the situation during the start of the counter-offensive.

Waiting or military reorientation?

“While the Russians have been on the defensive in Ukraine in recent months, that does not mean they have been on the defensive at all levels and in all parts of Ukraine,” Ryan writes. Twitter.

At the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Ryan estimates that Gerasimov would have had three options. The first option for the Chief of the General Staff was to await and monitor as closely as possible the development of the initial phase of the Ukrainian offensive. The chief of staff probably wanted to wait as long as possible to see where the Ukrainians should focus on, Ryan suspects.

The second option, in addition to gathering intelligence, was to try to weaken the enemy with limited offensive attacks on Ukrainian weak points.

The most difficult politically but militarily effective option would have been to realign Russian defenses around Crimea and Donbass, Ryan continues. This would mean that Russia would give up most of the territory illegally occupied since February 2022. But this option would probably never have come through with Putin.

Drone and missile attacks on civilian Ukrainian targets

“It appears that the Russians have chosen option two. His main focus is clearly on holding land in the south of Ukraine, from Donetsk to the west of Kherson,” Ryan said. To this end, not only is information gathered, but Russia also carries out drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets. Recently, the Ukrainian city of Odessa was hit hard.

Even with much of Ukraine’s combat capability still undeployed, Gerasimov has now had more than seven weeks to observe and learn from Ukrainian forces launching their attacks in southern and eastern Ukraine, Ryan writes.

“He probably thinks he can win a battle of attrition”

According to the expert, the Ukrainians in the south are making slow progress. A focus of the Ukrainian armed forces is the weakening of the Russian reconnaissance complex, especially the artillery. At the beginning of the offensive war, the Russians still had clear advantages.

Ryan believes Gerasimov will closely monitor this balance of power and stick to his current strategy. “He probably thinks he can win a war of attrition.”

The Russian general is likely to consider Russian targeted operations once Ukrainian offensives reach their peak. Ryan’s conclusion: “Both sides face a long war of attrition.” (A)

Source: Blick