That’s why the Russians are bombing Odessa right now. Two major fires in Greece largely under control

Odessa, a beautiful port city on the Black Sea, was largely spared from the Russian offensive war, apart from a few rocket attacks. The Russian offensive came to a halt in front of Mikolayiv, some 100 kilometers to the east.

But now Odessa has been exposed to new nighttime missile strikes for days on end. What is Russia trying to do with this and why are the attacks coming now?

What was attacked?

In the most recent attack on the night of July 20, several residential buildings were attacked by missiles and drones. An apartment building is now one floor shorter, at least one person has died.

A fire was also ignited, which spread for about 300 m² Oleg Kiper, the governor of the region, said in a Telegram message. But it is not the attacks on residential buildings that should be the focus here.

In the attacks of 18 and 19 July, the port infrastructure was mainly the target of the Russian missiles. Not only the main port, but also the slightly smaller port of Chornomorsk and the port of Mikolayiv were hit.

In Chornomorsk, the missiles hit several grain silos, destroying about 60,000 tons of grain. Mikola Solskiy, the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, reported this on July 19. The grain was destined for export via the so-called grain corridor.

In an interview with the “Tagesschau” he describes that the aim of the attacks is clear “to cause as much destruction as possible”. Because not only silos were destroyed by the missiles: high-performance terminals were also damaged in any case.

With such terminals, huge cargo ships can be loaded in a relatively short time. Without them, this work is incomparably more difficult and tedious.

Why now?

It is no coincidence that Russia is attacking Odessa again at this very moment. Because on Monday it was announced that the important grain agreement would no longer be extended. This forced Russia to allow Ukrainian grain exports.

Now you may be wondering why Russia agreed to this. After all, grain exports form a significant part of the Ukrainian economy, which is hostile to Russia. The reason is that Ukrainian grain is existential to the global food situation.

Originally, the agreement was only supposed to last until last November. Not least thanks to the intensive intervention of the United Nations and numerous NGOs, the deal has so far been extended time and time again.

Now no agreement could be reached. That the port infrastructure was attacked shortly afterwards is certainly no coincidence, says Solsky: “They want to show that the grain corridor is impossible without their participation.” Ukraine has made it clear that they are trying to export the grain through other channels, and now Russia wants to show its power. But the attacks are not a reflexive response:

What are the effects of the attacks?

Ukraine is now trying to get its grain to market via alternative routes, the agriculture minister said. They want to use transit routes through neighboring countries.

These routes cannot even compensate for the possible lack of grain exports via the Black Sea. A freighter can transport up to 60,000 tons of grain at a time, a freight train up to 10,000. However, depending on the destination, the grain still needs to be transferred from the freight train elsewhere, possibly onto freighters.

But Ukraine does not have many alternatives at the moment. Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that with immediate effect, all ships calling at Ukrainian ports will be considered “potential carriers of military cargo”.

The flag states of these ships would therefore be considered directly “involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kiev regime”. For example (according to the Russian account) an American freighter on its way to Odessa would be part of the Ukrainian armed forces and could therefore be shot down.

People in crisis areas are even more at risk

The consequences for Ukraine are one thing, but the resulting consequences for global food security go much further. Shortly after Russia invaded, grain prices exploded worldwide. Wheat traded at an all-time high.

The grain agreement only brought prices back to a moderate level. With Russia’s announcement that it no longer wants to be part of the so-called “Black Sea Grain Initiative”, prices are starting to rise again. And with the attacks on Odessa and the statement from the Defense Ministry, Vladimir Putin has shown that he means business.

While a price increase is annoying for us in Switzerland, other regions of the world are existentially affected. Saskia Kobelt, Emergency Programs Manager at UNICEF, explains when asked by Watson:

People who are already acutely exposed to multiple crises such as droughts, floods, conflicts, inflation, cholera outbreaks and climate change would now be even more vulnerable. The expert says we must now brace ourselves for a further increase in human suffering.

“That is why it is now crucial that global food security and price stability are promoted,” says Kobelt. This should hopefully prevent an outbreak of famine, especially in the Global South, and further destabilization of many regions.

(cpf)