How Sahra Wagenknecht could spit in the soup for the AfD China wants to launch a reusable spaceship from 2027

The German electorate yearns for an alternative. And find them at the Alternative for Germany (AfD). In the most recent polls, it is 20 percent. This makes the AfD the second strongest force in the entire country, moving ever closer to the CDU/CSU in first place. In parts of East Germany, it is even clearly at the top.

The first AfD district administrator was recently elected in Thuringia and the first AfD mayor in Germany was elected in Saxony-Anhalt. Reactions to the meteoric rise of a far-right and pro-Russian party demanding the dissolution of the EU and co-monitored by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution have ranged from shocked to helpless.

The success in the East has structural causes. Many feel second-class people compared to the “Wessis” and “strange” to democracy. But there are also general reasons. Many Germans have had enough of the ongoing crises with Corona, the war in Ukraine and inflation, for which the established parties seem to find no recipe.

Government and Union at odds

The traffic light government in Berlin is particularly notable for the ongoing dispute between the FDP and the Greens. The best example, but not the only one, is the controversial heating bill. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) usually looks (too) long at the ins and outs. He doesn’t want to play his two “junior partners” against each other, but seems weak in leadership.

Things are no better for the Union parties. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has not lived up to the hopes placed in him. On the contrary, the critics who always considered him overrated see themselves confirmed. That’s what the polls show. While Chancellor Scholz is at least popular with the SPD base, Merz fares badly even with his own followers.

Especially protest voices

This week he replaced the general secretary of the CDU, but the union has a structural problem. A dispute is brewing between the proponents of a strictly conservative orientation, which should be used to curb the AfD, and the still strong ‘Merkel faction’, which wants to continue the middle way of the former chancellor.

The conflicts within and between the established parties are the perfect breeding ground for the rise of the AfD. Analysts largely agree that it mainly produces protest votes and that only a small proportion of Germans share the far-right content. Now, however, the high-flyers in the polls are threatened by the other side of the political spectrum.

Dispute over migration

There, too, the left is in a state of notorious division. The conflict flared up especially with Sahra Wagenknecht, the former figurehead of the party. She has made a name for herself lately as a proponent of a quick “peace” between Russia and Ukraine, which is certainly in line with the party line.

Yet there has been talk of an alienation for some time. The conflict is fueled by another hot topic, migration. Now things could get even worse, because the party board decided this week to nominate the savior at sea and climate activist Carola Rackete as the leader of the left for the European elections of 2024.

“restrict immigration”

In interviews, she has demanded that Europe should admit anyone who wants to. Wagenknecht is diametrically opposed to this, as she explained to the “Südwest-Presse”: “We cannot solve the problem of world poverty through migration.” It leads to excessive demands and outrage: “That’s why we need to curb immigration.”

This sentence could come from the SVP. Or the AfD, which could be dangerous for them, because Sahra Wagenknecht flirts with founding her own party: “I would be happy if all voters who currently do not feel really represented by any party, will soon have a serious political offer available again.”

Before the big bang

The decision will be made “this year”, said the 54-year-old from the “Südwest-Presse”. There are some indications that a “big bang” is coming, according to the broadcaster ntv. A month ago, the party leadership of the left called on Wagenknecht to leave the Bundestag. However, she didn’t think about it and countered with a sharp counterattack.

According to NTV, dozens of Left Party officials have agreed to switch to a Wagenknecht party. Among them are prominent names such as former national chairman Klaus Ernst. And even the current party leader in the Bundestag, Amira Mohamed Ali, is a supporter of Wagenknecht.

Strongest force in Thuringia

Such a new foundation would harm not only the left, but also the AfD. According to surveys, 60 percent of their current supporters could “flood” to Sahra Wagenknecht. According to a recent survey, it would be the strongest force in Thuringia with 25 percent, ahead of the AfD, led by far-right party leader Björn Höcke.

This offers interesting opportunities for the European elections, in which the five percent threshold does not apply, and for the regional elections in the three East German AfD strongholds of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in the autumn of 2024. A Wagenknecht party could spit the AfD into the soup. The right-wing extremists would hardly be in any real danger.

Left on the edge of the abyss

For the Left Party, on the other hand, the prospects would be bleak. In the 2021 elections, she only returned to the Bundestag thanks to three direct mandates. In a split, it would likely lose faction status and thus influence and money. In the long run, the survival of the left, which emerged from the GDR unity party SED, is at stake.

The outlook for Germany as a whole is not rosy. With AfD and Wagenknecht, the country would have “a right-wing and a left-wing radical populist party”, NTV concludes. This would further complicate the formation of viable governments. One can only hope that the traffic light coalition will pull itself together and pull the country out of crisis mode.