Will there be wars soon for the blue gold?: Those who control the waters have the power

According to the expert, armed conflicts about the ‘blue gold’ cannot be ruled out either. Swain cites two wars as examples in which the struggle for water was one of the reasons for armed conflict: the 1967 Six-Day War, when the Israelis occupied the Golan Heights to secure the water supply of the Jordan River, and the Indian War. Pakistani wars in Kashmir, the watershed of the Indian rivers.

Conflict over the Nile: ‘All options are on the table’

According to Swain, the explosive power that the theme of water can develop can currently be seen in and around Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s dam, which is expected to be Africa’s largest when completed in 2024 or 2025, has its regional neighbor Egypt fearing for its water supply from the Nile and for domestic agriculture.

On several occasions, Swain says, there was almost talk of a possible military escalation. Egypt meets more than 90 percent of its water needs from the Nile. Who is allowed to fill the dam and how much water will flow through the river in the future is therefore of great importance to many countries in the region.

And recently Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, 68, has taken a rougher tone in his dealings with Ethiopia: “Let’s not get to the point where the brothers in Ethiopia will touch a drop of Egyptian water, because all options are on the table.”

China controls the Asian moated castle

Between India and Pakistan – both plagued by water shortages and drought – a dispute is simmering over several common rivers. The most important: the Indus, which flows through the Indian part of the Kashmir region. The Indus rises in Tibet, the water tower of Asia. The Ganges, the Mekong and the Brahmaputra – other rivers that can cause conflicts – also originate on the Tibetan plateau.

This increases the likelihood of conflict in the already disputed Sino-Indian border region, where China has de facto sole control over water distribution, according to an analysis by the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs. This affects not only the border area, but all countries bordering the rivers. Since the 1990s, China has built eleven mega-dams, among other things. As a result, too little water flows to the southern countries.

In an era marked by severe and prolonged droughts, control over water is becoming one of the most powerful symbols of power in these regions. For Ashok Swain, only one thing helps here: “These countries must realize that fair water distribution only benefits everyone involved.” Otherwise, water threatens to become a weapon that can destabilize entire regions.