Western democracies are not (yet) lost Police in Panama confiscate six tons of shark fins

Was the NATO summit in Vilnius a success or not? Opinions differ. While some praise the unity of the 31 member states and Turkey’s approval of Sweden’s accession, others regret that Ukraine has not been given a clear promise to be admitted as soon as possible.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cooled his anger undiplomatically in advance. In the end he was quite satisfied, because apart from a clear step-by-step plan or schedule, he got what he hoped for. And accession during the war with Russia is unthinkable for most NATO countries because of the obligation to provide aid.

In any case, it takes a lot of imagination to come to the conclusion, like Blick, that Vladimir Putin was “the undeserved winner of Vilnius”. As the NZZ wrote, Ukraine does not need a “written commitment from NATO”, but very concrete military aid. And at this point, as requested, she got even more commitments in Lithuania.

Impressive unit

There is no denying that the West has been too hesitant to supply arms. One alleged taboo after another has fallen through the power of the factual, with main battle tanks, medium-range missiles and the controversial cluster munitions. But without massive Western support, Ukraine would probably have already lost the war.

There can always be conflicts over the details. Yet it is impressive how united the European and North American states still seem almost a year and a half after the beginning of the Russian invasion. It is an important signal at a time when Western democracies are under pressure and tend to retreat.

autocrats in distress

Instead, autocratic regimes trump, especially China, which has also been admired in the West for its supposed recipe for bringing prosperity and efficiency to people without the nasty side effects of democracy and human rights. It is now becoming clear that the “decadent” West is more robust than many think.

In the autocracies, on the other hand, the paint peels off. Russia is lost in Ukraine. The Wagner mercenaries’ operetta putsch questions the supposed stability of Putin’s mafia-like regime. China failed to respond to the outbreak of the corona pandemic and to combat it, and the expected economic boom has so far failed to materialise.

Erdogan’s turnaround

Iran can contain the anger of its young people only with great difficulty and with the greatest brutality. Saudi Arabia is trying to strike a balance between economic opening and tentative liberalization, while at the same time intensifying repression against members of the opposition. Discontent is also growing in other dictatorships such as Cuba.

These developments have not gone unnoticed by a “semi-authoritarian” ruler like Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Lately he has shown an unnerving connection to Vladimir Putin. Now the turnaround has taken place with the approval of Sweden’s NATO membership. Apparently he expects more benefits from the West, not least for the troubled Turkish economy.

Putin feels the pressure

Putin, on the other hand, surprised in an interview with Russian state television on Thursday by noting that Ukraine, in principle, has the right to ensure its security. It is in stark contrast to his hate speech before the war started, when he denounced the neighboring country as an illegitimate construct by the grace of Lenin.

Putin strongly opposes Ukraine joining NATO, but the would-be conqueror seems to be feeling the pressure. Because there is rumbling in the Russian army. This is evidenced by the expulsion of a commander who had sharply criticized the Moscow leadership and the alleged neutralization of General Sergei Surovikin, which was popular with the agitators.

China seeks rapprochement with the US

China, on the other hand, seems to be trying to get closer to the United States after months of tension and mutual attacks. Finance Minister Janet Yellen was in Beijing for several days and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken met with China’s top foreign policy leader Wang Yi in Jakarta on Thursday for the second time in a month.

Apparently, Beijing realizes that its aggressive foreign policy (or wolf-warrior diplomacy) is doing more harm than good. In doing so, China literally drove its neighbors into the arms of the United States without Washington having to do much about it. The Chinese are also launching a charm offensive towards Europe.

Biggest threat from within

Western democracies are certainly not lost yet. The greatest threat to them at the moment does not come from without but, paradoxically, from within. In Germany, the ongoing feuds in the traffic light government are boosting the AfD. France, the other motor in the European Union, is in constant turmoil.

Countries like Poland, Hungary and now Israel are trying to dismantle the independence of the judiciary, a cornerstone of liberal democracy based on the separation of powers. In the US, Trumpism remains a persistent threat. A growing number of Republicans are openly hostile to the achievements of the Enlightenment.

Challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence contribute to the battle between ideologies being moot. But things looked decidedly worse for liberal democracy. That should also concern Switzerland, which leaves a rather disoriented impression in the search for its place in the world.