If Putin ends the export deal, hunger and destabilization will ensue in crisis countries: will the Russians shoot grain ships?

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Next Monday will be a fateful day for the poorest. It is the day that the grain deal that Russia and Ukraine concluded a year ago with Turkey and the United Nations expires. At the moment, Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) makes no move to extend it.

The agreement aims to export grain from Ukraine across the Black Sea and through the Bosphorus without attacking the transport ships. According to UNICEF, the deal could allow 30 million tons of goods to be exported and saved from rotting. About 60 percent went to developing countries. The deal was brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69).

famine stopped

For the poorest countries, the grain deal means more than a drop in the ocean. Saskia Kobelt, 33, Emergency Programs Manager for UNICEF Switzerland and Liechtenstein, told Blick: “The agreement has had a very positive impact on global food security and led to the worst – namely the outbreak of famine in the global South – can be avoided. can slow things down.”

The deal also has a positive impact on global food prices, which have fallen for a decade after hitting an all-time high in March 2022. However, the prices and availability of grain and fertilizers have not yet reached pre-war levels.

destabilization of crisis areas

Saskia Kobelt warns: “If the initiative is aborted, there is a very clear threat that the humanitarian situation in many countries in the South will continue to deteriorate – and in the worst case scenario, like wildfire.” In some countries, UNICEF is even counting on famines. Somalia, Afghanistan, Niger, Syria, Mali, Haiti, Chad, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Yemen and South Sudan have been particularly affected.

We must not forget that food insecurity adds fuel to the fire in regions already affected by conflict, economic crisis and drought. If the initiative were to be aborted, one would have to reckon not only with a dramatic increase in the global hunger crisis, but also with further destabilization of vulnerable regions in the Global South.

Saskia Kobelt: “Millions of adults and children have become the pawn of a terrible calculation.”

Erdogan in the lead role

The Kremlin threatens to cancel the contract because it does not meet the conditions for the continuation of the deal. One of the conditions is the lifting of sanctions that prevent Russia from exporting grain and fertilizer. Russia also accuses Ukraine of sabotaging an ammonia pipeline, which is important for the supply of grain to the port of Odessa.

The key role in extending the deal will again be played by Erdogan, who previously had relatively good contact with Putin. Since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksi, 45, visited Istanbul last weekend, tensions have reigned between Erdogan and Putin as the Turkish president released five Azovstal fighters captured by the Russians and supports Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Shortly after the visit, Russian forces used drones to attack the grain terminal in Odessa. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) does not rule out that the attack was an angry reaction by the Kremlin to Erdogan’s gift to Zelensky.

Putin will give in

It is not clear how things would continue without a deal. Possibly the Russians would block or even fire on grain ships leaving the port.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres (74) intervened on Wednesday to persuade Putin to extend the deal. In a letter he made a proposal to Putin. The aim is to remove barriers to financial transactions through the Russian Agricultural Bank while enabling the further flow of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. Guterres describes the agreement as a “beacon of hope”.

According to Ulrich Schmid (57), a Russia expert at the University of St. Gallen, Putin also wants to show with his threat that grain exports from Ukraine depend on Russian goodwill and that Ukraine has limited sovereignty. Schmid thinks it is likely that Putin will give in at the last minute. Schmid: “He cannot afford to jeopardize his already crumbling support in African export destinations.”

Source: Blick