Negotiating Sweden’s NATO membership: Erdogan’s icy calculations

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What a start! On Monday, on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) announced that he would agree to Sweden joining NATO. And that after more than a year of blockade. There is a lot of calculation behind the decision.

Observers say Erdogan’s U-turn comes at a particularly opportune time for the Turkish president. “Erdogan knows he can extract maximum concessions from his Western partners in Vilnius,” Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting researcher at the Brookings Institute in Washington, told CNN. An Eastern European diplomat told the broadcaster that he will “use the moment to squeeze every last drop out of this situation”. Sweden’s accession was at the top of the Alliance’s agenda.

Turkey wants to join the EU

Experts agree that it is a successful move by Erdogan. Because the Turkish yes to Swedish accession to NATO was linked to a number of demands.

One: it is time to move forward with Turkey’s long-delayed accession to the EU. “Turkey has been at the gates of the European Union for more than 50 years,” Erdogan said, and “almost all NATO member states are European member states.” But this project can get tough: to admit a new member, all 27 EU countries must agree. A big hurdle – so German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64) does not believe in the idea.

Although accession to the EU is one of Turkey’s most important demands, it is by no means the only one. The delivery of 40 new F-16 fighter jets by the US is also under discussion. Most recently, US President Joe Biden, 80, had hinted in a phone conversation with Erdogan that the US would give in to fighter jet demands — if Turkey gave in to the NATO discussion.

For Turkey, however, the priority is to crack down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization in many countries. Sweden only introduced stricter laws to combat terrorist financing in June.

Erdogan can withdraw concession

Erdogan has previously stated that he fundamentally supports NATO expansion. Experts are of the opinion: Turkey wants a big NATO. Because the Turkish president has a say in one of the most powerful and largest alliances in the world.

The question remains: did Erdogan get everything he wanted? Or could he make other demands?

It is important to remember that Erdogan’s announcement was not an approval of the bid, but a statement of intent to take the approval issue to the Turkish parliament. For example, he reserves the right to thwart or delay accession if Sweden slackens its fight against terrorism or if the US fails to comply with the F-16 treaty. All in all, he has not lost any real influence, but has put Turkey in the best negotiating position possible.

Source: Blick