Categories: World

Russia expert Ulrich Schmid on talks with Wagner boss Prigozchin: “Putin faces a dilemma”

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Where would Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin be without the Wagner mercenary group?
Chiara SchlenzForeign editor

It was a “betrayal”, a “stab in the back”, according to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) of the “March on Moscow” that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (62) had planned for the end of June. In response to his disobedience, the oligarch and warlord was banished to Belarusian exile along with his mercenary group Wagner.

Or at least the world has been led to believe so. Neither Prigozhin nor a large number of Wagner mercenaries were sighted in Belarus. As Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov, 55, announced Monday, the two warlords and another 35 Wagner officers were said to have met in Moscow on June 29, a few days after the failed uprising. The Wagner commanders then got “more opportunities and more combat missions,” Peskov said, adding that the paramilitaries had said they were “ready to keep fighting for Russia.”

Putin must include Prigozhin in his ranks

There was no mention of the dispute between the two. For Russia expert and Slavist Ulrich Schmid (57) this means one thing above all: “It bears witness to the dilemma Putin is in.” On the one hand, Putin demands unconditional loyalty from Prigozhin and was angry about the uprising, on the other hand he depends on the clout of the Wagner group, the expert explains.

More about the Wagner Rebellion
What’s going on in Belarus?
Prigozhin endangers Lukashenko
Intelligence expert explained
Putin may need Prigozhin
“Fight Traitors”
Prigozhin reports with a mysterious message
The mainstay of Africa trembles
Does the Prigozhin putsch make Russia a regional power?

“Putin has no good options in this scenario,” Schmid said. Letting Prigozhin get away with it would show weakness – the Kremlin chief would lose face. But punishing the Wagner boss would have equally negative consequences: it would mean that he could no longer count on Prigozhin and his mercenaries in the war in Ukraine and in his efforts on the African continent. Therefore, the Kremlin boss has no choice but to put on a good face for a bad game.

Will Prigozhin have to leave traces?

But what’s next for Wagner? “If Putin has his way, Wagner should be transferred to the regular army structures,” Schmid suspects. The first signs of this are already visible in the Central African Republic: According to “The Africa Report”, about 600 Wagner mercenaries were withdrawn from the capital Bangui – and flown to Moscow.

Under pressure from the Kremlin, Wagner’s leadership is reportedly preparing to review the group’s organization and tell its men to report more closely to the Russian Defense Ministry from now on. In addition, Wagner’s leadership in Bangui, Vitali Perfilev, could be replaced by another commander who is presumably closer to the interests of the Ministry of Defense and less closely aligned with Prigozhin.

How and whether Prigozhin will be so willing to submit to the Russian government in Ukraine and Russia remains to be seen. Because it must not be forgotten: the demand that Russian mercenaries be integrated into the regular army was the reason for the Wagner uprising. So far, Prigozhin has not commented on talks with Kremlin chief Putin.

Source: Blick

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