Institute for the Study of War sees first successes in Kiev’s counter-offensive: cracks in the Russian front

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is regarded as the reference par excellence for the analysis of conflicts worldwide. Daily bulletins provide neutral and factual information on current geopolitical issues. Reviews of China and Taiwan, Iran, Islamists and the “Russian Offensive Campaign” are currently being published regularly. The latest bulletin on the war in Ukraine is impressive.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has been going on for a month. Kiev and the Pentagon try to explain the lack of rapid, large-scale recaptures. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley (65) recently spoke of a “very, very bloody” phase in the war. The first wave of the counteroffensive will take many weeks. Now the usually neatly analyzing ISW reports the first cracks in the Russian front.

Bakhmut and Southern Ukraine

In the latest Ukraine Bulletin of July 7, the ISW war experts speak not only of “tactically significant advances” of the Ukrainian forces “in the Bakhmut region”. According to reports, the Russians are transferring almost all of their eastern group of troops to southern Ukraine. The large troop movements are apparently an indication “that almost the entire combat capacity of the Eastern Military District is focused on defense against Ukrainian counter-offensives, especially in southern Ukraine”.

In other words, “The transfer of almost all troops from the east to the front lines in southern Ukraine indicates,” the ISW said, “that Russian defenses in southern Ukraine may be vulnerable.”

The Russian defense in southern Ukraine is “although strong, but not insurmountable”. Should Ukrainian troops make an operational breakthrough, Russian troops in southern Ukraine would likely have to withdraw. This without being able to rely on significant support from the reserves.

Will Kiev reach Crimea?

Retreating under attack is “an extremely difficult military task”. According to the ISW, the question is whether the Russian armed forces “can retire in good condition”.

The think tank’s military strategists assume that the Ukrainian armed forces are making gradual efforts to systematically weaken Russia’s combat capability in southern Ukraine over time – “this increases the fragility of Russian defenses”.

This now-besieged Russian southern defense line is Moscow’s stronghold near the Crimean peninsula, which President Vladimir Putin (70) annexed in 2014. There are therefore increasing signs that Russia must defend Crimea against a reconquest by Ukraine.

Source: Blick