The pillar of Africa trembles: is Russia being relegated to a regional power by the Prigozhin putsch?

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As Yevgeny Prigozhin, 62, marched toward Moscow, the Kremlin was not just trying to stop the mutiny at home. Damage control was also necessary in the vast foreign empire built by Prigozhin’s private military organization, the Wagner Group.

Because no matter how angry Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70) is with Prigozhin, the group’s activities in Africa are too valuable for him to give up.

Group Wagner is the cornerstone of Russian foreign policy

Wagner is active in ten African countries. In Mali, the mercenaries have a direct contract with the government, just like in the Central African Republic. Wagner is – or was – also active in Burkina Faso, Libya and Sudan and in Syria. However, many activities cannot be independently verified or verified.

It is precisely because of these opaque operations that the Wagner group is invaluable to the Kremlin. With its military and business ambitions, Moscow can influence countries and credibly deny its involvement. In fact, the Wagner Group is one of many, but perhaps the most important pillar of Russian foreign policy.

The Kremlin will therefore be careful not to undermine the activities of the Wagner group in Africa. No wonder, then, that despite the brief “internal affair” in Russia, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry called the mutiny, the deployment of private military companies on the African continent will continue.

Prigozhin needs money from Africa

Prigozhin is also unlikely to want to stop working in Africa. With his conglomerate of various companies in African countries, he continues to make a fortune.

In addition, the Kremlin has begun dissecting Prigozhin’s various business models. Just days after the failed mutiny, companies affiliated with Prigozhin began losing orders for school meals, several independent Russian media reported. Prigozhin’s media companies are also said to have been blocked.

The future of the Wagner group can only be speculated at the moment. After all, the future of the mercenaries is probably not in the hands of the Kremlin or Prigozhin. Arguably the most important factor in determining Wagner’s future on the continent are his African clients, who turned to Russia for help.

Is Africa turning away from Russia?

But since the mutiny, African elites may have changed their minds about Russia, Jędrzej Czerep of the Polish Institute for International Affairs told The Economist.

Some of Russia’s most influential supporters in Africa have been silent in recent weeks. This shows how much support for Russia hinges on her being seen as powerful enough to help her African clients achieve their own goals.

It’s almost ironic: the same group that Putin sent to help African leaders solve internal problems has itself mounted an uprising against his own government. This is not good publicity for a regime that sells coup protection to autocrats and juntas abroad with the help of Wagner’s mercenaries.

Source: Blick