What’s going on in Belarus? Insiders assess the risk of Wagner mercenaries: Prigozhin endangers Lukashenko

He did not explain what he meant by that. He also said nothing about where he is at the moment and what he is doing.

What do Belarusian insiders know about Prigozhin’s whereabouts, plans and the future of the Wagner Group? Blick asked prominent Belarusian experts for information.

“Prigozhin went into hiding,” says Andrei Sannikov (69), who in the 1990s was deputy foreign minister under the current ruler Alexander Lukashenko (68) and his challenger in the 2010 presidential elections. Prigozhin’s plane was spotted twice in Belarus, but even he did not know where Prigozhin was.

It is said again and again that Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) wants to kill Prigozhin because he threatened and mocked him with his march on Moscow on June 24. Vitali Shkliarov (46), political scientist and former political prisoner, does not believe it will come to that. “If Putin wanted to kill Prigozhin, he would have done it long ago,” he told Blick.

Prigozhin’s enemies can be found elsewhere, for example among the supporters of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (68), who has been criticized by Prigozhin. But also in their own ranks: “Many Wagner soldiers feel betrayed and have announced revenge.” There are many prisoners among the mercenaries who would have to go back to prison without a Wagner troop.

Lukashenko had persuaded Prigozhin to abandon the march on Moscow with his mercenaries and offered him a deal and residence in Belarus. “But this so-called agreement is really just a pile of lies,” says Sannikov. In his eyes, a conflict between Lukashenko and Prigozhin is inevitable. “They are both criminals and will settle their differences like criminals,” Sannikov told Blick.

Svetlana Tichanovskaya (40), who ran against Lukashenko in the 2020 elections and claimed victory for herself, predicts a scandal between the Belarusian ruler and Prigozhin. In an interview with AFP, she says: “They are not allies, they cannot trust each other. Lukashenko can betray Prigozhin at any time, and Prigozhin can betray Lukashenko.”

According to Vitali Shkliarov, the deal with Prigozhin suits Lukashenko. He could use it to establish himself politically and publicly humiliate Putin. In addition, Lukashenko comes with the Wagner soldiers to an experienced army – unlike the Belarusian army. “It gives him more security.”

According to Tikhanovskaya, Lukashenko did not just intercede to save face of Putin or Prigozhin, he is more concerned with his own survival. “Lukashenko knows that he will be next when the rulers in Russia quarrel,” says Tikhanovskaya.

Tichanovskaya warns about the presence of the Wagner group in Belarus. “The presence of Prigozhin himself or the Wagner group on our territory is primarily a threat to the people of Belarus and to our independence.” But that’s not all: its presence could also pose a threat to “our western neighbours”.

The residence of the Wagner group in Belarus is a risk factor, especially for Lukashenko, says Sannikov. “Because it will be a legitimate target for Ukrainian forces whether they plan an attack on Ukraine or not.”

The former top Belarusian politician Sannikov does not exclude the possibility that Putin could also give direct orders to the Belarusian army to participate in the war. Sannikov: “However, both Lukashenko and Putin know that the consequences can be unpredictable and that the Belarusian troops do not want to fight in this Russian war.”