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Fighters from the Russian mercenary company Wagner have so far been effective instruments of Russian power politics in the Middle East, executing deserters in Syria and laying land mines in Libya. They fought for Moscow’s interests and committed crimes on behalf of Russia, but the Kremlin always managed to distance themselves from them because they were not part of the Russian army.

After Wagner’s revolt over the weekend, this model no longer works. The confrontation between mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Moscow leadership shakes Russia’s role as a power in the Middle East.

Wagner troops are deployed on behalf of Russia in various crisis countries in the Middle East. In Libya, they support the rebel general Khalifa Haftar in his fight against the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The Russian government thus secures influence in Libya without having to deploy ground troops from its army.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, which are also on Haftar’s side, are also cooperating with Wagner. For Haftar, the battle-hardened Wagner fighters are a welcome help.

While Moscow has always denied that the mercenaries are under the control of the Kremlin, the close ties between the Russian government and Wagner cannot be disguised. When hundreds of Wagner mercenaries were trapped in Libya after a failed attack on the capital Tripoli in 2020 with their way back blocked, the Kremlin took advantage of its good connections with Turkey, which supports the other side in Libya. Wagner’s mercenaries were allowed to leave unharmed.

Attacks on US bases in Syria

In Syria, Wagner troops are not only helping President Bashar al-Assad’s government against the rebels. They also attack US bases in the east of the Civil War country. In February 2018, the Americans repulsed the largest of these advances to date, killing up to 300 attackers.

The Russian mercenaries have been using Sudan since 2017 to fund their troops and evade Western sanctions. The mercenary company received permission from the Sudanese army to exploit gold mines in the north of the country. According to US estimates, Russia was able to replenish its treasury with some of the gold.

Washington therefore imposed sanctions on some gold companies and called on the Sudanese authorities and the governments of the UAE and Egypt to end cooperation with Wagner. However, so far they have ignored US calls because they value good relations with Russia.

That could change after Prigozhin’s uprising this weekend. Russia’s greatest asset in the Middle East is Russia’s image as a reliable partner that, unlike the fickle US, does what it promises. This statue has been heavily scratched in recent days.

As Prigozhin turned from Putin’s friend to his enemy, the question arises of how the mercenary operations in Libya, Syria and Sudan will continue. It is not even clear whether the mercenary company will continue or be disbanded.

Many wait for the final outcome first

Some observers say the crisis is weakening Russia in the Middle East, regardless of the outcome of the conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian government. Putin’s reputation has been badly damaged, said Camelia Entekhabifard, head of the Persian edition of the online newspaper “Independent”. Everyone saw the Wagner troops almost overthrow the Kremlin boss, she told Israeli broadcaster I24.

Other observers are more cautious. The “Wagner saga” is not over yet, says Joe Macaron, a Middle East expert and former UN adviser in Paris. But he also sees a possible setback for Russian power politics in the region. For example, if the Wagner fighters in Syria stop following orders from Moscow, the gap would have to be filled by the Syrian army, militias loyal to Assad and pro-Iran groups, Macaron told our newspaper.

While Iran has publicly sided with Putin, other governments in the Middle East have so far remained silent. Expert Macaron says most want to wait and see how the drama in Russia turns out. If Putin fails to regain control, it raises questions about his legitimacy and assertiveness: “Top politicians in the Middle East and North Africa are watching closely.”