What will happen to the Wagner Company and its thousands of fighters?

Probably the least impressed by Wagner’s coup were the Russians. First, because the beginning of the war broke down so many moral barriers that it is difficult to surprise them. Second, because the accusations against the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoiguthe head of the company, Yevgeny Prigozhinit escalated to a climax that, with the latter cornered, could only be resolved by the traditional method: violence.

What was striking was the ease with which the rebels seized key infrastructure and approached Moscow, as well as the welcome they received as they marched. Prigozhin managed to establish himself on the battlefield as a true hero and as a spearhead against corruption. His ideas and his image run counter to Putin’s. For this reason, the future may continue to surprise if Russia fails to secure the loyalty of the Wagnerists and integrate them into its defense structure.

The previous movement of some tectonic plates may explain what will happen to the mercenary company. In addition to the conflicts mentioned above, and perhaps as a response, the State Duma this month approved a law returning the monopoly of violence to the state: all mobilized must accept the hierarchy of the Ministry of Defense, something Chechen guard Ramzan Kadyrov accepted, but Wagner refused. Moreover, the latter was left without the possibility of recruiting prisoners from the prison. Growing up, Wagner was a key pillar for Russia; now, maturely, it’s a nuisance.

And at this point it is worth going back to 2003, when Putin’s regime, by arresting tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, exposed one of its most important features: blackmailing businessmen to steal their empires. Oil company Yukos was the first on a list full of financial and energy companies, which is now filled by the military sector. Therefore, perhaps pardon mercenaries who advanced towards Moscow, by should continue with them on good terms. And maybe from there the support that a democratic as Khodorkovsky showed the insurgents on Saturday.

Wagner is used to fighting in the gray zone, so his last word in the Russian south may be far away. In the end, we are left to wonder what will happen in the rest of the shadow they occupy in Africa and the Middle East.