Is this the end of Wagner? What speaks for – and what against the Russian commander about the attempted coup of Prigozhin: “Is society divided”

It was the showdown in the power struggle between the Wagner mercenary group and the Russian military command: On Saturday, the mercenaries took control of military facilities in the city of Rostov-on-Don and drove almost unhindered towards Moscow. Then suddenly Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigoschin stopped the advance – and ordered his fighters to turn back.

Exactly why is still unclear. All that is certain is that he has made an agreement with the Russian presidential office, apparently brokered by Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. According to the information, the following has been agreed:

Experts assume that other aspects played a role in the negotiations. For example, the experts of the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write: “the details of the agreement, the manner and timetable of its implementation, the results for each party and the extent to which all parties involved will comply keeping the agreement, is still unclear at this time”.

“The end of Prigozchin is also the end of Wagner”

But there are also statements that suggest how things could go on in the future with the Wagner mercenaries. According to experts, the end of the mercenary group in its current form could now threaten.

For example, the political scientist and founder of the analysis center R.Politik, Tatyana Stanovaja, writes in her Telegram channel: “Now a dismantling of Wagner is underway.” She is sure: “Prigozchin’s end is also Wagner’s end.”

The Wagner Group “will most likely disappear in its current form as an independent actor under the leadership of Prigozhin,” the ISW experts write in their daily report. The deal removes control of Wagner from Prigozhin. However, parts of the organization “could continue to exist under existing and new capacities”.

The Russian Defense Ministry has been trying for weeks to gain more control over the mercenary groups. Until now, Wagner operated as a private company, which is at least officially illegal in Russia. However, the ministry is now trying to subordinate the fighters and has set July 1 as a deadline for this. For example, Wagner soldiers were ordered to sign contracts with the ministry.

Demobilization or Africa?

In the margins of the agreement, there was now a new offer to some Wagner fighters: those who did not take part in the uprising could sign a contract with the Russian army. However, some questions remain unanswered, the ISW experts emphasize.

For example, there is no information on how the Kremlin determines which employees did not participate in the uprising. In addition, the fate of the other combatants is open. The only thing that is clear at this point is that they should not be prosecuted. It is also unclear whether the Wagner fighters want to join the army at all and whether they would be accepted by the armed forces there.

The experts describe four possible ways to proceed: they could sign individual contracts with the defense ministry, follow their leader to Belarus or be sent to Wagner sites in Africa or the Middle East. It is also possible that they will demobilize and remain in Russia. However, this can pose a problem for internal security.

Prigozhin caused massive damage to the Kremlin

How things will continue with Prigozhin himself is also open. It is unclear whether he has already arrived in Belarus, where, according to the Kremlin, he will live in the future. There is also no further information about a possible whereabouts. Observers also point out that just because the Kremlin has given him security guarantees in no way means that Prigozhin is actually safe.

Especially since he could have inflicted enormous damage on the Kremlin with his march on Moscow. As the ISW experts write, the action exposed significant internal security weaknesses: the armed forces were virtually unable to counter the Wagner mercenaries. It was one of the deadliest days of the war for the Russian Air Force. The morale of the Russian troops is likely to be significantly weakened. That makes Russian President Vladimir Putin weak.

According to the ISW experts, Prigozhin may have felt cornered by the Defense Ministry’s attempts to take control of the mercenaries – seeing such action as the only way to save himself both personally and professionally. The ISW experts estimated that Prigozhin counted on more defectors, but that did not happen to a large extent.

Instead, he has made more detractors in his support of the ultra-nationalist movement. For example, military bloggers condemned the march on Moscow, saying they crossed a red line fighting their own army. (t-online/cck)