The day after the coup attempt: a deep fracture in Putin’s rule Experts on the power duel: “What a shame for Putin”

Daniil Charms, the nonsensical poet of the Soviet Union, wrote the play Unsuccessful Performance in 1934. In it, people keep coming on stage and start vomiting. At the end, a little girl stands there and says, «Dad asked me to tell you that the theater is over. We’re all sick.” The curtain falls.

The play translates well to the reality of Russia in June 2023. For 24 hours, a swearing, armed barbarian and his paramilitary troop occupied a city and kept the world in suspense. He drives up tanks and threatens a march to the center of power in Moscow. The tour of the city surrenders to him without a word or deed, the people are standing at the train station and want to leave en masse.

The president scolds, orders to destroy the “traitor”. Fear of carnage has made Russian leaders so nervous that they are digging up streets and declaring days off. Meanwhile, people in the capital stroll along the river and complain that long-planned events are being cancelled.

Then, in the evening, the surprising turn of events: the barbarian leaves to the cheers of those around him, his men leave the scene. They all go unpunished. Curtain closed, theater over. The horror remains. And the tsar stands there almost naked.

Lukashenko of all people

Yevgeny Prigozhin has turned his guns on his own side – and in short order exposed the man who made him great in the first place: Russian President Vladimir Putin. For a long time, Putin let Prigozhin have his way, let him scold the military leadership in the best slang, let him push the boundaries of what can be said so far – until he crossed the arc.

So Prigozhin then sat at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, the regional headquarters of the Russian Defense Ministry closest to the front in Donbass, drinking coffee and watching the stunned Deputy Defense Minister Yunus -Bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alekseev. “Then what should we do?” asked Yevkurov, the helpless man.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko apparently helped. Lukashenko of all people, who is always seen by the Russian leadership as a figure not to be taken seriously and who depends on Russia and does not trust him! Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday evening that Lukashenko had tried to resolve the conflict on his own initiative because he had known Prigozhin for 20 years.

And Putin? Hasn’t he known him for decades? The negotiated deal, at least the official part of it: Prigozhin retreats to Belarus and goes unpunished. There is no longer any mention of the Russian Attorney General investigating him for inciting armed resistance. threatened 12 to 20 years in prison.

First impunity and then submission to the army

The investigations of the Russian internal secret service FSB were also stopped. Likewise, the fighters of the Wagner group go unpunished. Those who did not participate in the uprising can sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Something that Prigozhin – unlike the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov – had always rejected.

They wanted to avoid bloodshed, the Kremlin said on Saturday evening. In an audio message, Prigozhin said he was aware of his responsibility. At that time, Kadyrov and his troops would have been in front of Rostov. The ruler of Chechnya had offered his help to Moscow. In fact, there could have been bloody fighting between two private armies. A complete loss of control.

According to Kremlin sources, Putin would have guaranteed Prigozhin’s safe conduct. And that after calling him a “traitor”. According to Putin, “treason” is only punishable by death. People cheered in Rostov, some shaking hands with Prigozhin as he drove off in a dark SUV. Approaching police cars greeted the residents of Rostov with cries of “shame”.

Prigozhin’s uprising had been looming for months. The fact that it became possible shows how long the Kremlin has underestimated the risk posed by the increasingly independent paramilitaries. Until scenes of civil war-like unrest – such images had not been seen in Russia since the end of the Chechen war – became possible again.

Prigozhin marched on because he wanted to end the “disgrace”, as he calls the work of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, against whom he had been verbally attacking en masse for months. Until that happened, he would block Rostov and advance on Moscow, he had threatened, calling this project a “march of justice.”

The FSB has drastically tightened security measures

Moscow had strengthened its defensive readiness, even declared a so-called “anti-terrorist operation” for the first time in its history and canceled all mass events. The FSB was thus in control and was given additional powers: it could eavesdrop on all conversations, check messages on the Internet, seize vehicles and search homes.

He may also search people without suspicion and restrict all traffic. He can also turn off the internet. In Moscow, the GPS transmitters were even more insane than they had been for weeks. Police officers with machine guns stood in some streets. Otherwise, the usual ignorance prevailed in many places.

A passerby said: “In a few days everything will be quiet here again. They are arguing, they are making it up again. We have something important to gain,” he said. The “most important” is the war in Ukraine, which many Russians justify, if not approve of. “We’re in it now, then we have to finish it and win,” they say. Restrictions on Sundays in the regions are slowly being lifted.

The Kremlin said on Saturday night that there was no doubt about continuing the “military special operation,” as the war in Ukraine is officially called in Russia. The fighting continues. But the Putin system as such has suffered. Putin failed to make it clear to Prigozhin early on how much he can afford. The generals stood there in a swoon. Some of the elite may now be wondering if Putin is still a safe bet to ensure their survival.

A lot of sympathy for Prigozhin in certain circles

Prigozhin certainly has sympathy in certain circles. Since he had mainly campaigned for the interests of the “little soldiers” against the generals’ desk clerks and often said things that the Russian leadership should keep silent about, he was especially appreciated by those who called for a tougher crackdown in Ukraine. Prisoners, whom he had recruited into his troops with the knowledge of the state leadership, expected a better life from him – and above all, impunity.

It was no longer the criminals chosen by society, but heroes celebrated by the Kremlin. First of all, because they captured the Ukrainian cities of Soledar and Bakhmut with the most brutal methods. Until the fall of last year, he had withdrawn from the public.

But then he became the voice of those who criticized the actions of the Russian military leadership in Ukraine and became a political figure. On Saturday, he spoke of a “new president soon”. This was the first time he directly attacked Putin. Until now a taboo. Putin must now accept the shame of personal betrayal.

When the Russian president delivered a five-minute speech on the uprising on Saturday morning, he mentioned heroes in the Wagner group, but did not name Prigozhin himself. An insurrection only leads to anarchy and is deadly for the country and the people, he had said, referring to the “stab in the back” and comparing the procedure to the October Revolution of 1917.

A few hours after his speech, Putin crawled back and smiled Prigozhin out of Rostov. The Russian rule of law, which the president talks about and which has long exposed itself to the political judgments pronounced against dissenters, has now become completely obsolete due to Prigozhin’s blackmail.

What Prigozhin’s future looks like is unclear. While Putin’s future is not yet sealed, his system needs to iron out a serious loss of confidence. The uprising shows what is possible in Russia, what forces the system has fed. The first part of the drama is over. Progress is in the fog. And how did Charms, the poet, put it? “We are all sick with disease.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)