The theories of chaos in Russia: Did Putin stage the Wagner putsch?

class=”sc-29f61514-0 jbwksb”>

Russia is slowly awakening from Saturday’s horror. Wagner mercenaries advanced on Moscow with breathtaking speed, turning the city into a fortress. Thanks to a deal with the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko (68), the advance of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigoschin (62) was only halted late in the evening.

The sudden end of the advance is irritating. Different scenarios are possible. Blick lists the currently most common theories and explains what’s behind them.

“There are several experts who do not rule out that it was all a big disappointment,” says Blick foreign editor Guido Felder in an interview on Blick TV. Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) also had his fingers in the pie. “The whole thing has to do with the war in Ukraine – it cannot be ruled out that Prigozhin will retreat to Belarus, regroup his fighters there and launch an attack on Ukraine.”

Russian military bloggers also do not rule out a major staging. Prominent blogger “Rybar” writes: “Let us assume that the entire march of justice is coordinated from beginning to end. What would be the goals then?” For example, the attempted impeachment of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (68) is possible.

Blick foreign editor Felder emphasizes: “This theory exists and can certainly not be ruled out. But it’s not all that realistic.”

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also writes in an analysis on Sunday that a conspiracy with Putin is ‘virtually impossible’. The uprising exposed weaknesses in Russia’s security forces and undermined Putin’s monopoly on the use of force. “Prigozhin’s rapid advance towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces, it was a disgrace,” writes the ISW.

The whole population has noticed the difficulties of the Russian government, the image of the Russian army has suffered greatly. “Claims that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response and Lukashenko’s mediation were all orchestrated by the Kremlin are absurd,” the ISW concludes.

Another theory is doing the rounds: the attempted coup could be an act of desperation by Prigozhin. Last weekend, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced it would take command of all private armies fighting on Moscow’s side by July 1. This would have included Wagner.

According to the ISW, Prigozhin may have viewed this announcement as an “existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival”. That is why the Wagner boss may have decided to invade Russia in the hope that Putin will change his army command and the order will be revoked.

The rapid advance and well-coordinated actions contradict this theory. Experts assume that Prigozhin planned the advance well in advance. The weekend’s announcement wouldn’t provide enough lead time.

Remarkably, the negotiations with Prigozchin to end the advance did not go through the Russian authorities. Instead, Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko entered the grand stage as a mediator. Lukashenko, of all people, who in recent months has increasingly acquired the image of a “Putin accomplice”.

Russia expert Stephan Meister of the DGAP think tank also writes on Twitter, Lukashenko is actually completely dependent on the Kremlin and completely subordinate to Putin. Now he suddenly acted as a mediator, which seemed ‘unreal’.

Thus, it was not the Kremlin that announced the agreement and the withdrawal of the Wagner soldiers. On the contrary, Lukashenko’s news agency took on this task. The Kremlin explained this with the long friendship between Lukashenko and Prigozhin: “Lukashenko and Prigozhin have known each other for more than 20 years.”

But that shouldn’t tell the whole story. Lukashenko’s press service indicated that the Belarusian ruler had also held talks with Putin. So Putin may have approached Lukashenko himself – with a request to negotiate a deal, several experts suspect.

For the Belarusian ruler, the attempted coup could also be an opportunity to step out of Putin’s shadow. “The fact that Lukashenko of all people plays a key role is humiliating for Putin and may have brought Lukashenko other advantages,” the ISW writes.

The question of what deal Lukashenko offered Prigozhin is unclear. Blick foreign editor Felder says: “It must be a really good deal for Prigozchin to give up some of his power. But I don’t think he will give up everything. If part of the Wagner group is dissolved, it should be the Ukrainian part.”

However, there are still Wagner units in other parts of the world, for example in Africa. There it is easier to, for example, occupy mines and thus earn a lot of money. So I’m not sure if Prigozhin really gives up everything.”

Source: Blick