Does Putin Kill the Insurgent Mercenary Boss? Prigozhin’s private army is crushed

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After the canceled march to Moscow, Wagner’s brutal private army in its present form, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin (62), will probably disappear. At least that’s what the experts at the Institute for War Studies think. It is possible that parts of the current organization will become active under new management.

The deal between Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko (68) and Prigozhin means that Prigozhin will waive criminal charges for rebellion and high treason, in return Prigozhin must relinquish control of the Wagner Group.

Under the agreement, part of the Wagner Group, which is likely to number around 20,000 at the moment, will be placed under the Russian Ministry of Defense, which Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (68) has long sought.

Many are looking for a new job

However, it remains unclear what will happen to the mercenaries who were not involved in the uprising. There is a possibility that these personnel can sign individual contracts with the Ministry of Defense or demobilize in Russia. Alternatively, they may travel to Belarus in some capacity or be deployed abroad to support Wagner Group’s existing operations in Africa or the Middle East.

ETH military expert Mauro Mantovani (58) expects only a minority to join the regular Russian army. “A majority will follow the better working conditions of private security and military firms. That’s a mercenary mentality…»

According to Mantovani, it was “Prigozhin’s last, desperate attempt to prevent his Wagner group from being integrated into the regular army and to establish a strong foothold in the Russian power apparatus”. He failed at both. After all, he managed to draw national attention to his criticism of the military leadership.

The Defense Ministry’s July 1 deadline to bring all irregular formations under control, including the Wagner Group, was seen by Prigozhin as an existential threat to his political and possibly personal existence.

Luxury life or murder?

It is unclear what will happen to Prigozhin. Mantovani reckons he will enjoy “a luxurious life in relative safety” in Belarusian exile and leave the affairs of the war to others.

Military expert Ralph D. Thiele (69) of the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Advice in Berlin, on the other hand, does not rule out that Prigozhin will be killed. Thiele says on ntv.de that he cannot imagine getting away unscathed. Prigozhin is likely to be arrested soon, which could lead to an “accident”.

He only contemplates Prigozhin’s survival once the uprising is staged. With such a trick, Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) could justify further mobilization and the declaration of martial law in his country.

Source: Blick