Experts on the power duel: “What a shame for Putin” What does Prigozhin want to achieve? Can Russia win the war without him? The overview

First he announces a march on Moscow, calls on Russian President Vladimir Putin to fire his top military officers – then Yevgeny Prigozhin suddenly retreats again with his Wagner mercenaries and goes to Belarus. It is unclear how it can proceed. However, one thing is certain: today is likely to be a disaster for Putin.

Because Prigozchin’s withdrawal of his troops for the time being is not something that Putin managed himself. His ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, had to mediate.

And the Russian army apparently did not fight on Putin’s side either: apart from a few air strikes, for example on an oil depot in the Voronezh region, the Russian troops did not resist. Experts now see one loser in particular: Vladimir Putin.

“The paint is finally off”

“What a shame for Putin,” writes military expert Carlo Masala on the short message service Twitter. According to this, Putin has made a fool of himself both in front of Russian citizens and his confidants and in front of other countries. “The paint is finally off,” says Masala.

ARD correspondent Ina Ruck also sees today as a disgrace to the Russian president. “It is not yet clear whether Prigozhin won or lost,” Ruck writes on Twitter. But one thing is clear: Putin has lost. “Because he is no longer undisputed. Because maybe more people are now questioning the war than before,” says Ruck.

With a view to the agreements between Moscow and Prigozhin, foreign expert Gustav Gressel writes: “That’s totally crazy.” What is in the security agreements that the Kremlin agreed with Prigozhin on Saturday is not yet known. According to Gressel, however, that is unimportant. “Prigozhin knows that ‘security guarantees’ mean nothing in Russian.” It is a mystery to him how the armed forces and Wagner will endure their coexistence from now on, says Gressel.

Putin is responsible for himself

According to Russia analyst Nigel Gould-Davies, Putin himself is responsible for the escalation in Russia. ‘It’s his own fault. Prigozhin is Putin’s creature: his rise is entirely due to Putin’s patronage,” he said on Saturday.

Gould-Davies said Putin was indecisive, fueling internal conflict between Prigozhin and the mainstream military leadership around Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. “After the invasion of Ukraine began, this is yet another example of Putin’s poor judgment.” The internal conflict emboldens the Ukrainian troops and demoralizes the Russian ones.

With the mutiny, Prigozhin directly and publicly undermined Putin’s justification for the offensive war against Ukraine and ridiculed the regular army, the expert said. The Kremlin boss was badly damaged. “This is the biggest crisis of Putin’s presidency.”

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