Russia expert Ulrich Schmid: “Situation in the Kremlin is desperate”

What are we experiencing here now: a coup? Or is it the start of a civil war that was just averted on Saturday?
Both go too far. It’s a mutiny, an uprising. Prigozhin’s goal is to impose his own military line. His main opponents are Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin has repeatedly demanded that Putin depose the two and that his own Wagner forces receive more support.

So he doesn’t want to overthrow Putin at all?
At least at the start of his campaign, that probably wasn’t his priority. His main concern was to strengthen his own position in the Putin system. In the meantime, however, he must have realized that there is no longer a place for him in the system. Now he’s going to put everything on one map. But his great handicap is that he has absolutely no power in the Kremlin.

And with the Russian elite? Doesn’t he have sympathy there?
No. He is the leader of his own team, loyal to him. But he has few supporters in the political system.

Not even with the Russian army? Can’t parts of it go to Prigozhin?
That is possible. The army is in bad shape, many soldiers are dissatisfied. Loyalty to Putin is therefore not very pronounced among the soldiers. However, only a few dozen soldiers have defected so far. This is not enough to fundamentally change the situation. I think it is almost impossible for Prigozhin to actually take power in Russia in the coming months.

Vladimir Putin has announced that he will “brutally” crush the uprising. He responded with airstrikes against the Wagner troops. What happens now?
Putin wants to get Prigozhin out of the game as soon as possible.

By killing him?
If necessary yes. He calls Prigozhin a traitor. That is the low point of Putin’s pecking order. He has previously distinguished between enemies and traitors. Enemies are those who have always been against him, for example opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Traitors are former comrades-in-arms who stab him in the back.

The Wagner forces moved towards Moscow on Saturday before stalling. What will happen in the coming days?
The news situation is opaque. However, Prigozhin apparently takes Mussolini’s 1922 March on Rome as a model. He is, as it were, staging the basic fascist model.

Will there ever be a battle for the capital?
I think that’s unlikely. But the mere fact that Moscow is preparing for this scenario shows how hopeless the situation in the Kremlin must be. The acknowledgment of a deep weakness. This has fundamentally shaken Putin’s own position.

Can he stay in power?
Prigozhin’s uprising weakened Putin’s position. Putin’s planned re-election as president next year can no longer be taken for granted, as he is no longer able to guarantee stability and security. One possible scenario is an early resignation of Putin and the constitutional takeover of the presidency by loyal Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. That would be maintaining Putin’s system without Putin as a person.

How do the events affect the war in Ukraine?
The uprising in Russia is good news for Ukrainians. The calculation is simple: Prigozhin’s mutiny binds both the Wagner Group and the Russian army in Russia. They are then missing in Ukraine, which facilitates the counteroffensive from Kiev. The course of the front could soon begin to move.

And what does an unstable Russia mean for the West?
The West will monitor the situation closely, but will not intervene. He currently has no options for action in Russia’s internal power struggle.