Will Prigozhin’s coup succeed? That’s what experts say Britons lost trust in politicians after Brexit

Events are currently underway in Russia. Wagner’s group of mercenaries has invaded the city of Rostov-on-Don, claiming to occupy military buildings there. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened that he would march on Moscow if Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov did not come to him.

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Prigozhin stressed that it was not a coup. However, the power struggle between him and the military leadership has been escalating for months. You can read more about current developments here. What’s behind it? And could Prigozhin succeed in his coup?

The experts at the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describe the current events as an “armed uprising”. Prigozhin probably wants to force a change in the leadership of the Defense Ministry. But they predict that this is likely to go wrong.

In their daily report, the experts write that Prigozhin may have “enormously miscalculated”. He may assume that he has the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin. His relationship with Shoigu has been strained in the past. However, this possibility is extremely unlikely given that Putin has been siding more with the defense ministry lately and the Kremlin’s reactions to Prigozhin’s actions thus far indicate surprise and a lack of agreement with Prigozhin. the report said.

The experts are currently unable to provide information on how many Wagner troops might be in the Rostov region and where most of the mercenaries are currently located. However, it is likely that after their withdrawal from the fighting near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, a larger contingent of troops remained in the occupied Ukrainian territories in the Donbas. In addition, Wagner has a training center near the city of Krasnodar, about 280 kilometers from Rostov-on-Don.

The experts strongly disagree with Prigozhin’s statement that his actions in Rostov-on-Don had no influence on the war in Ukraine. Because in the city is the headquarters of the southern military district. The 58th Army is currently playing a key role in the defense against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in southern Ukraine. It is also an important command center for the Russian armed forces throughout Ukraine.

But why did Prigozhin decide to take such an escalating step? According to the ISW experts, the Wagner boss probably sees himself in an “existential struggle for survival”. He had previously used Wagner’s battle successes at the Battle of Bachmut to claim more influence for himself. “Prigozhin’s largely independent control of the Wagnerian forces was the cornerstone of his campaign, making him the central figure of the Russian ultra-nationalist movement,” the experts write.

In May, however, Wagner withdrew from Bachmut and announced a lull in the fighting. The Defense Department is now apparently taking advantage of this and is stepping up efforts to subordinate the mercenary group to the Ministry. So Wagner mercenaries were ordered to sign contracts with the Ministry.

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