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“The Road to Majority” is the title of a conference of American Christian conservatives taking place this weekend in the capital Washington. The obvious goal of this “road to majority”: to regain power in the next presidential election in 2024.

For Republicans, this path no longer necessarily leads through Donald Trump. The ex-president is still far ahead in the internal party polls. But awareness that Trump could prove to be a nuisance to the campaign appears to be gaining ground, at least among top officials. Almost all of Trump’s opponents will have the chance to attack him on the “Road to Majority” this weekend.

The Coalition for Faith and Freedom

The conference is hosted by lobbyist Ralph Reed. He knew early on that the Republicans in the US could basically no longer win elections without Christian fundamentalists. For this reason, Reed founded a group in 2009, which he called the “Faith and Freedom Coalition.”

This “Faith and Freedom” coalition is intended to serve as a kind of conservative interface between evangelicals and members of the libertarian, state-critical “Tea Party,” from which parts of the Trump movement sprang.

The strength of this coalition is already evident from Reed’s guest list. Pretty much everyone who’s running for the top Republican nomination comes to the conference he’s hosting. In addition to Donald Trump, his competitors Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Christie and many others have their say. Before the candidates’ official debates begin in August, Reed’s conference is an initial test run for and against Trump.

The former president still has a special role in the party. Unlike his challengers, he will not be speaking on stage this Friday. Trump will not honor himself until Saturday evening as a guest, where he is expected at the gala.

A fight for influence

This special treatment cannot hide the fact that the supporters of the Republicans, the “Grand Old Party” (GOP), are not primarily concerned with the personal and political fate of a 77-year-old man, but with majorities and influence.

Many evangelicals are grateful to Trump, for example because he managed to fill the Supreme Court with a majority of conservative judges. This was the only way the liberal rules on abortion in the US could be overturned and relegated to the states. The arch-conservatives have been waiting for this for decades. Trump is still considered the deputy agent of this mission.

But what comes next? After recent disappointing election results, more and more Republicans seem to realize what is really at stake if Trump, with the numerous lawsuits against him, becomes their top candidate. His legal and verbal defensive battle could obscure content that matters to his constituents. One fear: It could only be about Trump and no longer their own right-wing conservative agenda.

The doubts are getting louder

For a long time, doubts about Trump were only expressed anonymously or with restraint. But now they are getting louder. Not only his competitors for the presidential candidacy, such as his former vice president Mike Pence or Chris Christie, are demonstratively against him. Former comrades and former cabinet members have also expressed their criticism of Trump more clearly than ever.

Former Trump Attorney General Bill Barr has spoken out very drastically in recent days. Barr described Special Counsel Jack Smith’s charge of withholding classified documents as “damning.” He compared Trump’s response to that of a “rebellious 9-year-old child.” He dismissed his justification as “absurd”. That earned him an insult from Trump. Barr is a “cowardly pig,” he wrote on his social network “Truth Social.”

Bill Barr followed suit. In an editorial, he wrote, “In the interest of the country, our party, and a fundamental respect for truth, it is time for Republicans to confront the hard truths about President Trump’s conduct and its impact.” The charges against Trump are not the result of unfair government persecution, but a situation of his own making. “The attempt to portray Trump as a victim of the Mar-a-Lago documents scandal is cynical political propaganda.”

More and more Republicans are speaking out

The ex-minister’s clear words are likely just the first taste of an emerging political endgame for Donald Trump in the coming months. His trial for the classified Florida documents begins on August 14, nine days before the first public debate between him and his competitors on August 23.

Before Trump’s opponents speak on the “Road to Majority” this Friday, some have already dared to come out of the cover in television interviews. Including Nikki Haley, former Trump ambassador to the United Nations. “If these allegations are true, President Trump has been incredibly reckless with our national security,” she told Fox News.

Entrepreneur and competitor Vivek Ramaswamy testified on CNN to Trump’s “very poor judgment”. And Mike Pence said on CNBC, “This indictment contains serious allegations.” As his fiercest critic to date, former federal prosecutor Chris Christie attacked his competitor Trump: the indictment revealed “very rigorous, extremely detailed evidence”. Trump’s behavior described therein was “appalling”. In response, the ex-president indulges in snide remarks about Christie’s obesity.

However, these first skirmishes cannot hide one thing: the party base continues to determine the electoral success of the candidates within the party. And there, according to current polls, Trump still has about 20 to 30 percentage points ahead of his strongest opponent Ron DeSantis, the governor from Florida.

No wonder, because about 80 percent of Republicans remain convinced that the numerous cases against Trump are mainly politically motivated. So initiated by the Democrats to specifically harm him.

Trump’s competitors have no choice but to refute this narrative and win over the numerous Trump supporters. If they don’t, they basically have nothing to gain. Because then Trump’s fans will still choose their original and not a copy of him.

It remains to be seen how much courage the evangelicals will have to attack Trump like Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie or Tim Scott. In reality, many of them still hope that the US judiciary will do this job for them. Then they could follow Trump without coming across as traitors.

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