Experts on intensified nuclear weapons rhetoric in Russia: “The West could be misjudging Russian nuclear threats”

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Should Russia launch a nuclear strike on the West – or not? The political and scientific elite in Russia have been wrestling intensively with that question in recent weeks. “Never before have I seen such an intense public debate about the use of nuclear weapons,” tweet Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia’s security and foreign policy at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, on Wednesday.

The heated debate was sparked by an article by the Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov (70): “Only the use of nuclear weapons can save humanity from global catastrophe.” In the article for the Russian magazine “Profile” he argues that only the preventive use of nuclear weapons can make it clear to the West how dangerous Russia really is. “This fear needs to be revived. Otherwise, humanity is doomed.” Only then can the conflict between Russia and the West be resolved.

How seriously he takes his threat – which he explains on about nine pages of A4 – remains unclear. It should also be emphasized that although he would be very close to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (73), he himself does not carry any political weight.

Reasons for nuclear attack not yet given

Still, it was enough to get other political scientists on the scene. While some applaud coyly, others warn: There must never be a nuclear attack. Could never happen now. Because Russian nuclear doctrine clearly defines when nuclear weapons can be used – and when not. It states: “The Russian Federation considers nuclear weapons solely as a deterrent, the use of which is an extreme and necessary measure.”

Alexander Sorg is a researcher at the Free University of Amsterdam and his research focuses on nuclear weapons stationed abroad in military alliances. He also emphasized in an interview with Blick: “It becomes problematic if Putin feels that he – and with it the state of Russia – is under threat.” Means: When attacks on Russia increase. “The reasons for provoking a nuclear attack are not currently met.”

The fact that the current debates are also held publicly and partly in English, points to Sorg mainly as propaganda. There are currently no suspicious movements of nuclear weapons in Russia. Nevertheless, he warns: “As long as Russia has nuclear weapons, it can use them.”

But even if all the articles are about Russian fear-mongering against the West, according to Ulrich Kühn, head of the Arms Control and New Technologies Research Department at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, the current situation would not be taken lightly: “The risk exists that the West will misjudge Russia’s nuclear threats.”

Specifically, he sees two problems. “If he overestimates them, it could have a negative effect on further deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine.” And: “If he underestimates them, he could inadvertently cross Russia’s ‘red lines’. This balancing act is likely to become even more precarious in the coming weeks and months.”

Source: Blick