ETH Expert on Slow Counteroffensive: “Ukraine Still Far From Success”

Ramaphosa and several African government leaders want to mediate between the two warring parties Ukraine and Russia. With his salute, Putin made it clear what he thinks of all peace efforts: nothing at all. Incidentally, the projectiles were taken out of the air by Western anti-aircraft systems.

The Kremlin boss continues to focus on bringing the neighboring country to its knees with its war of annihilation. But on the battlefield, the wind is currently blowing from a different direction. A week ago, Ukraine officially launched its long-awaited counter-offensive, initially liberating at least seven villages. The Ukrainians advanced several hundred meters around the city of Bakhmut. There are also territorial gains in the Zaporizhia region in the south of the country. Ukrainian deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said on Saturday: “Virtually wherever our forces attack in the south, they are making tactical progress.”

Zelensky confident, experts cautious

These are the first successful recaptures since the liberation of the city of Kherson in November. It looks “generally positive” despite bitter Russian resistance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 45, said in an interview with US TV channel NBC News on Friday. But it is “very, very difficult”.

Military experts warn of premature euphoria. “The operational breakthrough of the Ukrainians through the Russian positions is still a long way off,” said strategy expert Marcel Berni (35) of the ETH Military Academy to SonntagsBlick. The main attack axes in the Donbass and in the southeastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhia have so far gained only limited momentum.

Niklas Masuhr (30), military expert at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, emphasizes when, where and if the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be successful at all. “A lot is currently anecdotal. We only see very selective images.”

The delay of a general costs the lives of more than 100 Russians

Photos of downed German Leopard 2 and American Bradley tanks, for example. The Ukrainians lost the vehicles in the first days of the counter-offensive. Moscow’s propaganda exploits the shots of the burnt-out NATO war machine with relish. “The Russians must have shown us these photos a thousand times from ten different perspectives,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, 69, scoffed at a NATO meeting on Thursday.

America will replace the destroyed vehicles. In addition, training flights for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets have started. Whether and when Ukraine will receive the American planes should become clear at the earliest at the NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius in mid-July.

It is already clear that the Ukrainian troops know how to use the American war material extremely effectively. This was evidenced by a mid-week US Himars missile attack on a Russian troop position near the Donbass town of Kreminna, which killed about 100 soldiers and wounded another 100, according to Ukrainian sources. The Russian troops were apparently waiting outside for a speech from a senior military officer that would have been hours late.

But Himar’s hits alone will not be enough to overcome the massive defensive walls, minefields and defensive positions that the Russians have built all along the front line during the winter and spring months. Experts expect extremely costly battles to actually make the Ukrainian offensive a success.

There may be surprises here

Apparently the government in Moscow is counting on that too. The Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, wants to make it easier for prisoners and soldiers to access military service Immunity from prosecution issued during their service. All measures to ensure the influx of new recruits for Putin’s war.

Preliminary conclusion after a week of counter-offensive: Much remains unclear, daring surprise attacks such as the successful lightning offensive of the Ukrainians around the metropolis of Kharkiv in the fall have not materialized so far. But surprises are always possible, says ETH expert Marcel Berni. “For example, fresh Ukrainian reserves could advance in eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk region or south near Kherson, provided floodwaters from the blown-up Kakhovka dam become passable.”

In the first case, the Ukrainians could advance to the Russian border, in the second, at best, cut off Russia’s access to Crimea and reach the Sea of ​​​​Azov. “The Ukrainian armed forces are still a long way from that.” Nearly 500 days after the start of the Russian attack, there is still no sign of a quick end to the war.