Ukrainians continue to push back Russians: the success of the counter-offensive depends on these factors

Three axes – where is the counter-offensive heading?

The offensive started badly. A week ago, the Ukrainian army lost several German Leopard tanks in fighting in the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast. Military observers also suspect major losses of Bradley vehicles.

But: in recent days it seemed as if Ukraine was gradually succeeding in retaking the Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine. And especially in the south. According to the well-known military analyst Konrad Muzyka, the Ukrainian armed forces succeeded in bringing 60 square kilometers of their country back under the Ukrainian flag within four days.

According to The Economist, three fronts are emerging along which Ukraine is fighting. A long-established axis leads east to the area around the hotly contested city of Bakhmut and Luhansk Oblast. There, Russian troops have occupied most of the areas Ukraine wants to recapture.

A new axis points from Wuhledar (Donetsk Oblast) to the south and southeast. Heavy fighting broke out there in early May. According to the experts, a third axis will be opened in the south of Ukraine and will stretch from Zaporizhia to the south. With this they probably want to clear the way towards Melitopol and the Crimea.

Combat will become even more difficult

The fighting so far has been tough – and could soon get even tougher. Despite their advance to the east, the Ukrainians are still about 20 kilometers from the first Russian defenses. Russia has established thousands of defensive positions from the edges of Western Russia to occupied Crimea on the Black Sea, including minefields, anti-tank ditches, rows of concrete barricades and “dragon’s teeth” trenches.

That is not the only challenge Ukrainians face, writes British military expert Jack Watling in an analysis. The deeper they penetrate Russian-held territory, the closer they get to Russian artillery positions – and further away from their own air defenses. Means: They are exposed to harder attacks, while they are less and less able to defend themselves.

Despite the challenges, Ukraine has what it takes to achieve great success with its counter-offensive. They have the necessary resources: tanks, long-range missiles, cruise missiles and well-trained soldiers.

Little information about counteroffensive

That is why Ukraine must be careful not to waste all its potential and good weapons from the West, analyst Watling emphasizes. That is why the Ukrainians are not yet fighting with full force, like the well-known military strategist Frank Sauer Twitter holds.

And even if Ukraine succeeds in the counter-offensive and triumphs even over Russia, only the Kremlin will decide whether to admit defeat or not. A further escalation of the war is more likely.

However, with all the reports about the counter-offensive, it should never be forgotten that there is also an information war going on. However, it should be emphasized that the information situation has changed since the start of the offensive. Ukraine is much quieter, disinformation is mainly heard from the Russian side. This makes reviewing and verifying statements from both sides even more difficult than before.