After initial setbacks: Ukrainian offensive gains momentum – an overview of why Donald Trump is done

After initial setbacks, Ukrainian forces pushed the Russians back into southern Donbass. Before that, they had lost the first western main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Among them were also German Leopard 2 main battle tanks, which Russian propaganda subsequently feasted on with relish. The Russians “recycled” the same wrecked or damaged tracked vehicles over and over in images they had previously taken from different perspectives.

First successes of the Ukrainians

How much Leopard-2 the Ukrainians ultimately lost in the process remains uncertain for the time being. While the head of the Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, only assumed that two German main battle tanks had been destroyed, other sources spoke of a dozen. So far, according to official data, the Ukrainians have received 60 Leopard-2. However, the Ukrainians were able to rescue one or two leopards and bring them back for repairs.

About 15 US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles were also lost. The USA has already indicated that it will soon make up for these losses with a new delivery. Germany also responded by announcing that it would bring refurbished older Leopard-1 main battle tanks to Ukraine faster than previously planned.

The nearly 200 kilometers long southern front between the deflating Nova Kakhovka dam in the west and the Donetsk region in the east can currently be roughly divided into two sectors: in the western sector in Zaporizhia Oblast, the Ukrainians have made little progress and suffered the heaviest tank losses.

In contrast, in the eastern sector of Donetsk Oblast, they succeeded in a southern attack led by several brigades. It is the first major success in the south since the counter-offensive began in early June.

minefields as obstacles

In the western sector, the 58th Russian Army is responsible, which not only put up fierce resistance, but also attacked and stopped the advancing Ukrainians thanks to reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters equipped with anti-tank guided missiles. Their tanks were on their way with demining equipment in Russian minefields. A significant portion of Ukrainian losses are due to mine explosions.

In this context, Ukrainian sources praise the Western equipment, which significantly increased the survivability of the tank crews compared to the old Soviet equipment. Automatic extinguishing systems help to fight the fire and in western main battle tanks the ammunition is stored in such a way that the pressure wave is directed outwards in the event of an explosion.

Accordingly, relatively few bodies were visible on the Russian videos of wrecked Ukrainian tracked vehicles. Apparently the Ukrainians were able to save a large part of their tank crews.

The eastern sector is controlled by the Russian 5th Army, which has been less successful in defending its positions. The Ukrainians managed to make a deep dent in the Russian front north of the village of Staromajorske. However, they are still about 15 kilometers from the barricade that the Russians have built further south in recent months.

The fact that Kiev is looking for a breakthrough at Staromajorske could be due to the fact that essentially only a large Russian barricade stands in the way of a further advance to the Sea of ​​Azov. In the western sector, on the other hand, there are two to three lines of reinforcement in the initially unsuccessful attack towards the Tokmak transport hub.

The dam burst helps the Russians

With the fighting in the south, Ukraine wants to cut the land bridge between Russia and the Crimean peninsula. This leads along the coast of the Sea of ​​​​Azov. The fact that, according to conservative estimates, the Ukrainians have so far recaptured just under 35 square kilometers shows how difficult and long the journey to the sea could be.

The floods that triggered the explosion of the Nova Kakhovka dam allowed Russia to withdraw some of its troops from the lower Dnipro – reportedly to reinforce the front at Zaporizhia and in Donetsk Oblast.

As announced by the Ukrainian leadership in Kiev, the Russians have at least partially moved their 49th Army from the Kherson region to other front sectors. The flooding makes it increasingly unlikely that Ukrainians will attempt a river crossing there.

The third center of gravity of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is the area around the city of Bakhmut in the east of the country. The devastated urban area is still in Russian hands, but the Ukrainians continue their attacks on the flanks. However, because Kiev has imposed an information ban on certain parts, it is not yet entirely clear how the situation at Bakhmut will develop. (aargauerzeitung.ch)