A new “hotline” is being installed: the dangerous silence between Washington and Beijing is coming to an end

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First it was a Chinese and an American jet that came dangerously close, a week ago there was almost a provoked collision between two warships: the two superpowers are currently sailing close to the wind. Both times not much was missing and the situation would have escalated.

Such dangerous maneuvers are currently the only “communication” that takes place between the two hostile states. The rule of thumb applies. During the three-day Asia security summit in early June, which was attended by senior delegations from both countries, no talks even took place.

Communications between Washington and Moscow during the war in Ukraine were not so bad. In the fall of 2022, the Pentagon announced, “The United States has a number of channels to discuss critical security issues with the Russians in the event of an emergency or emergency.”

Direct line essential

The fact that there is radio silence between Beijing and Washington is not due to the US. John Kirby, 60, communications director for the National Security Council, said on CNN it was important for the US to keep the lines of communication open. He called the fact that this is not currently the case “worrying”.

Simona A. Grano (44), China expert at the University of Zurich, underlines this statement: “Especially when two superpowers fight each other as enemies, constant direct contact is essential. In any case, it is dangerous not to have a permanently open connection.”

To stabilize bilateral relations, both countries should strive to establish multiple communication channels. Grano: “In concrete terms, this means that both countries must maintain as many ties as possible, including diplomatic, military and trade relations. Exchanges between citizens must also be intensified.”

Solution found?

Apparently there is movement now. Following the air and sea provocations, a meeting between senior US and Chinese officials took place in China this week, where both sides agreed to maintain some lines of communication in the future.

The purpose of such communication channels is, among other things, to prevent an escalation due to an error of judgment or an accident. “When we look at what China is doing in international airspace and international waterways — the provocative interception of U.S. and U.S. allies planes — it is deeply concerning,” Grano said.

Hot wire since 1962

Such informal channels have a role model. To prevent provocations from escalating into open war, a “hotline”—also known as a “red phone”—was installed in 1962 during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. Moscow had previously delivered intermediate-range missiles to Cuba, and the crisis almost escalated into a military eruption of battles between the nuclear powers. The hotline was later expanded to other countries.

There is no information on how often the hot wire was used. But the governments of Moscow and Washington are known to have communicated about it during the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973 and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

By the way, these were not red telephones, as it is always called, but a cable connection for written communication. Today, the hot wire is a secure internet line.

Source: Blick