Climate report: If we continue like this, warming will increase by a maximum of 3.5 degrees by 2100

We experienced this ourselves last summer. It was extremely hot, especially in the cities. The drought affected all of Europe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has now presented its latest synthesis report, which examines the risk of extreme events and adaptations to climate change. According to the synthesis report, with the current climate policy, the world is developing towards a warming of between 2.2 and 3.5 degrees Celsius in 2100. The threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius would be reached before 2035.

“In recent years, we’ve got a taste for it extreme events, which will become even more serious and frequent in the future, says Erich Fischer, IPCC lead author from ETH Zurich. This includes extreme heat, dry summers, heavy rainfall and lack of snow. In its sixth status report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates the risk of extreme events at a given level of warming is now significantly greater than in the previous reporting cycle. “The current report underlines that climate risks are generally occurring earlier and greater than previously assumed and that action has become very, very urgent,” said Andreas Fischlin, a climatologist at ETH Zurich.

Children born today are therefore much more likely to experience extreme weather events than the generation of their parents and grandparents. For young people in particular, every tenth of a degree of warming that is prevented significantly reduces the risk, says Sonia Seneviratne, ETH climatologist and IPC author. “Conversely, with each additional warming, the risk of extreme events of previously unknown magnitude or abrupt massive global changes increases.”

To avoid such changes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified many climate solutions that are no more expensive than current approaches and can be significantly expanded. Changes in demand offer the most success, according to the synthesis report. For food, 44 percent less greenhouse gases could be emitted in 2050 than with constant demand, 66 percent for buildings, 73 percent for electricity, 67 percent for land transport and 29 percent for industry. The expansion of solar and wind energy or measures to curb the loss of natural ecosystems are also particularly beneficial.

To achieve this, individual measures and minor adjustments to the current situation are no longer necessary, as was previously the case. Fundamental systematic changes are needed to really slow down the rise in temperature. So far, less than a fifth of the measures in the Swiss Climate Adaptation Strategy 2020-2025 are cross-sectoral. But what is needed is coordination across many policy areas, clear targets and clean finance, says ETH Zurich’s Anthony Patt: “Framework laws with a goal of net zero by 2050 enable the development of comprehensive packages of measures that address the various challenges of rapid decarbonisation approach.”

The message of the March 20 press conference, however, was one of hope. The chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Hoesung Lee, emphasizes the urgency of comprehensive action, but also says: “We have the tools, the technology and the knowledge to act on climate change.” It is now important that the right investments are made, because the financial market also bears a great responsibility. Climate justice will also be a topic at the press conference: those who contribute least to climate change are most affected by it – this gap also needs to be closed.

(aargauerzeitung.ch, anb)