Surprise: despite the brake on imports, more dollars left than came in in January

The Argentine Commercial Exchange (ICA), published this afternoon by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), showed, in the first month of the year, negative balance of 484 million dollars.

The data breaks the continuity of the trade surplus that the Government managed to maintain since September, after in August 2022, the deficit reached USD 300 million.

The result surprised not only Sergio Massa’s economic team, but also experts from the private sector who did not expect this outcome at the beginning of the year. According to a poll conducted by Reuters, analysts projected a a surplus of $350 million for ICA in the first month of 2023.

According to INDEC data, exports amounted to 4.9 billion dollars, with annual decline of 11.7%and Imports totaled $5.384 million, representing a 2.5% increase.

less dollars

In a month marked by a slowdown in the agricultural sector, affected by drought and with a low supply of products after waiting for the settlement of the exchange rate with the “soy dollar II”, official information reflects a drop of 4.8% in the commercial exchange (exports plus imports) compared to the same month of the previous year, which amounted to USD 10,284 million.

for his part, exports fell by 11.7% compared to the same month in 2022or that represents revenue of $648 million less than the 13.3% decline in amount, from prices rose 1.6%.

Seasonally adjusted, deliveries abroad fell by 8.9% or 2.3% in the trend cycle, compared to December 2022.

Primary products (PP) decreased by 42.5%, and fuels and energy (C&E) by 5.2%; while the production of industrial origin (MOI) increased by 12.5%; and of agricultural origin (MOA) 1.0%.

In contrast, and despite the control maintained by the Government over imports, it showed an increase of 2.5%, representing a demand of $133 million more than in January 2022.

In that sense, the phenomenon is explained by the increase in prices of 3.2% from as a result of trade management, the amounts fell by 0.8%.

Seasonally adjusted purchases abroad increased by 2.7%, while the trend-cycle recorded a decrease of 1.6% compared to December 2022.

On this side of the scale, procurement of fuel and lubricants (CyL) increased, 96.1%; and parts and accessories for capital goods (PyA), 21.4%, but imports of others fell, 31.3%, mainly due to lower procurement of goods shipped by postal services (couriers).

Capital goods (BK) had the same decline, 12.3%; personal motor vehicles (PA), 11.8%; intermediate products (BI), 10.5%; and consumer goods (BC), 8.1%.

So, the balance of the trade balance was negative in the amount of 484 million dollarswhich reflects a difference of 781 million dollars less than the result achieved in the same month of the previous year, when the surplus reached u4s 297 million.

In 2022, Argentina accumulated a surplus of $6.923 million in 2022, compared to $14.751 million registered in 2021.

busy year

Good prices on the international market made it possible to close 2022 with record exports, but 2.5% was lost in terms of volume. The panorama is beginning to change, in line with global projections of a general decline in business volume, which he predicted World Trade Organization (WTO).

At the local level, Marcelo Elizondointernational trade analyst, warns of c problemscompetitiveness, the effects of the “soy dollar” and drought damage to the countryside, the main generator of foreign exchange for the country.

With the course of the election calendar, foreign exchange restrictions will remain and will be one of the biggest challenges in the economic portfolio. “Argentina will have exchange problems throughout the year because prices will not be as good as in 2022 – due to the effects of the war – and the export supply is reduced due to the drought,” he explained..

Furthermore, he added that political factor they will do their part in anticipation of the change in government that might bring changes in the exchange regimeexporter “it will vary as much as it can”generation greater tension on reserves and pressure on imports.