The level of employment grew, but they warn that a plateau may be reached: figures that the Government is closely monitoring

The government concluded 2022 with positive data in a very delicate segment. According to preliminary private data, the level of formal employment showed accumulated advance close to 14% last year, an undoubtedly relevant fact amid the official need to achieve – and demonstrate – good results.

In the total period January-November (so far the last survey by INDEC) shows a recovery of 13.55%and it is estimated that it would record a similar growth in December, which would reach 14%.

This made it possible to add about 635,000 registered workers during the last yearaccording to a comparison between December 2021 and the same month in 2022, based on data from Ministry of Labour -with November with the last official measurement- and private consultants.

Labor further claims that in November 2022 the number of people with registered work reached 13 millionwhich is a slight increase of 0.4% compared to the data of the previous month (47,800 people more).

Last November, 10.1 million people with registered salaried employment relationship (including private sector, public sector and work in private homes) and 2.880 million people with independent work (monotributists and self-employed).

With a positive variation in December, It has been chained for 31 months without negative data in the amount of registered employment.

Employment: growing or stagnating?

However, what is worrying is what can happen from now onsince while private investors see little progress in December, they already fear a slowdown.

“It’s something we have to watch carefully, especially before fear that what is seen is a trendsince we will have to see how industrial activity develops in the coming months,” he explained to Chronicler Hernan Lechterfrom the Center for Argentine Political Economy (STRAIN).

From Argentine Industrial Union (UIA)Meanwhile, the vision is similar. Pablo Dragundirector of the entity’s Study Center, understands that the slowdown in the creation of new jobs began to be noticed in December, which also happened in January, and until now also in February.

“That doesn’t mean we’re starting to see job creation numbers fall, but it does mean job creation would be slower. Today it is difficult to record high numbers,” said Dragún.

And here again appears the spirit of the smallest progress in the activity of the industry, which would have consequences on less demand for labor.

“What has been observed since mid-2022 is that, despite the fact that activity could have stagnated, there has been an increase in employment. Now that curve is starting to flatten out and for that reason we need to look carefully at this dataLecher said.

Private analysts understand that a slower evolution of job creation could begin to be observed, a situation linked to the progress of activity and consumption.

It is a positive fact that, although a stagnation in employmentit is not expected, at least in the first part of the year, that positions will start to be lost.

The positive developments that are visible in terms of job creation are reflected in the progress of jobs registered in the industry, which, according to the data of the Observatory for Employment and Business Dynamics (OEDE), of the Ministry of Labor, returned 86,600 jobs. between December 2019 and November 2022.

However, this fails to offset the 167,000 industrial jobs lost under Mauricio Macri’s governmentbetween 2015 and 2019.

This is shown by INDEC data The last time the balance of open positions was negative was in May 2020year, when a decrease of 1% was recorded. Since then, they have closed every month with a favorable balance, except for July 2021, when it was stuck at zero.

What does not show a positive balance is the segment illegal employmentshowing higher levels of progress than the formal, a trend that experts doubt can be sustained.

Own indec indicate that during the last year three key sectors for the local economy, such as construction, industry and tradeit created 180,000 new jobs last year, although 300,000 informal jobs were generated at the same time.