In the last five to ten years, the automobile has changed like never before in previous years. But how will its importance for us develop in the coming years against the background of electromobility, a possible lack of energy and a change in user behavior? At the Blick Auto-Talk held at the Oerlikon Exhibition Center on the occasion of Auto Zurich, we asked three experts in which direction motorized private transport will develop or whether the car will become obsolete.
Andreas Burgener (63), executive director of the Swiss Automobile Importers Association
The car keeps getting better, more beautiful, safer and more efficient. It gets us from point A to point B with pinpoint accuracy and is time-flexible, even if traffic congestion often slows us down. And quite emotional: People love to be active. That’s why I see the future in flexible financing models for your own car, such as car subscriptions rather than sharing. Because it’s like renting an apartment with vehicles – do you really want to share the washing machine and tumble dryer with others? The unilateral commitment to electromobility gives manufacturers the opportunity to focus on a single technology. As an engineer, it seems unfortunate to me that the European Union bans a technology with the ban on internal combustion engines from 2035. It would be better to set a zero gram limit for CO₂ that leaves open with which drivers it will be achieved. Then you can still explore the possibilities of hydrogen and synthetic fuel. We will certainly be driving more autonomous vehicles in two decades – but not yet in fully autonomous vehicles.
Andreas Herrmann (58), St. Head of the University of St. Gallen (HSG) Mobility Institute
The car is indispensable in Switzerland because public transport covers only about 20 percent of passenger kilometers. Cars are even more efficient than an entire train with only five passengers. But we must have the courage to reinvent the car. The way it’s used hasn’t changed in the last 140 years: people buy and drive a car. But in addition to electromobility, autonomous driving and vehicle and infrastructure networks offer us new opportunities to rethink the automobile and change our mobility behaviour. We shouldn’t be stuck with old business models, we need a mixed form of private vehicle and public transport – shuttles for 2 to 16 people to replace private cars within the city – as soon as it will be in Oslo (N). Whether electromobility is now the ideal drive technology cannot be definitively clarified. But the industry needs planning certainty for its investments. That’s why the two technologies were never followed in parallel in automobile history, and it makes sense to focus on the electric motor.
Tobias Keel (40), New Head of Business at Zurich Canton Electricity Works (EKZ)
Decarbonization means electrification: The road to electromobility has been mapped – in ten years it will already have a large share. As an electricity supplier, we face two challenges: As a distribution grid operator, we have to provide the energy needed for electric driving and at the same time inform customers about the charging infrastructure. If we drive mostly electric vehicles in 2035, vehicle electricity needs will account for about ten percent of the total volume. In the short term we will have enough electricity next winter, but in the long term we need to transform our grids to provide the electricity we need in the future. Smart controls will help us, taking into account that not everyone has to charge the car as soon as they plug it in. However, in 20 years, we also need to make progress in sharing: If cars are used by only 1.5 people on average today and are standing about 95 percent of the time, sharing cars can still increase efficiency quite a bit.