This Ukraine expert explains what is really behind the counter-offensive

We also need to understand a few things about the design of the operation itself. In this case the bottom line is that it is still too early to speak of a victory, but certainly too early to speak of a defeat. The fight has begun.

First, it is important to convey some basic principles of war science. Operations such as those carried out by Ukraine take place at the so-called operational level – between the tactical level (think of troops in combat contact) and the strategic level (think of ultimate war objectives).

Yes, art. It’s a strange word in a military context, but it applies. While there is much we publicly don’t know about how things are planned, directed, and managed, Ukraine’s war effort shows signs of artistry.

This is not the case with Russia.”

Ultimately (strategically speaking), Ukraine’s main goal is the liberation of its entire territory and population.

Considering the situation on the battlefield at the time when Ukraine launched its current offensive, even with skill it was not possible to achieve this goal in one go.

Therefore, those who assess Ukraine’s recent progress based on its strategic objective rather than a nested/supporting operational objective err in military analysis.

Ukraine cannot regain all its territory in one operation. A judgment based on this false basis has no analytical value.”

Ukrainian forces have broken through the first layers of Russian defenses on the Zaporizhia front, forcing the Russians to make increasingly difficult decisions, especially between Bakhmut and Zaporizhia.

The actual objective (classified as secret) will be more specific and likely also take into account the inevitable need to develop plans as the fighting progresses.”

In other words, the deeper it goes, the easier it will be for Ukraine.

This means that we cannot project linearly. If the Russians fail to stop the growing momentum, the Ukrainian breakthrough could be swift and far-reaching.”

The fact that these outcomes are entirely possible means that it is premature to pressure Ukraine for concessions and negotiations now.

In fact, this would directly benefit Russia, which desperately needs time and space to regroup and try to gather more men and equipment to stabilize its defenses.

Are these the only outcomes that are completely possible? Of course not. It is war.”

Much fighting remains, but events so far suggest that the design of the Ukrainian offensive could prove to be one of these examples of artistry.

Ukraine has made some risky but excellent decisions. Their bitter resistance in Bakhmut not only cost the Russians significant costs but also contributed to Wagner’s downfall. It also directly supported the breakthrough of Russian lines in southern Ukraine by tying down troops that Russia can practically spare.