14,000 Ukrainians turned their backs on Switzerland

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The war in Ukraine is likely to enter a new phase once Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive begins. What the offensive means for the refugee situation in Switzerland depends on how it develops. If Ukraine recaptures occupied territories, this could trigger a return movement.

There is already a slight tendency to return to Switzerland. The bottom line is that in recent weeks slightly more people from Ukraine have left Switzerland than have come to Switzerland. Since the beginning of the war, about 80,000 people have been granted protection status S. However, only about 65,600 are currently active and for more than 11,000 people it has ended.

Return assistance for more than 4,000 people

“At the end of April 2023, 13,976 Ukrainian citizens left Switzerland independently,” says Lukas Rieder of the State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) to Blick. “Of these, 4,287 people have formally renounced protection status S and have returned to Ukraine with support.”

For example, the returnees are supported in organizing their departure. Financial compensation of up to CHF 500 per adult and CHF 250 per child – with a maximum of CHF 2,000 per family – is also possible. According to the SEM, the return aid for refugees from Ukraine amounts to CHF 1.7 million so far.

Fewer applications in the summer

The SEM does not say specifically whether the yield trend will increase in the coming months. “If the war continues without Russia gaining any significant territory, a further drop in S applications over the course of the summer is possible,” Rieder said. “By then, at least temporarily, more people will return to Ukraine than apply for S status.”

Development also affects costs. Last year, the federal government had to pay about CHF 937 million for those seeking protection. A large part of these were extraordinary contributions to the cantons, which are responsible for supporting those affected.

For 2023, the federal government has budgeted a total of CHF 2.1 billion, assuming an average of 100,000 people seeking protection. A prognosis that probably won’t come true. For this year, the federal government expects only 20,000 to 23,000 new S applications. “So the average should be around 65,000 people with status S this year,” Rieder explains.

By 2024, that number is expected to be around 1 billion

Forecasts for 2024 also remain uncertain. Last year, as part of its financial planning, the federal government expected 25,000 people to seek protection before 2024 and had budgeted CHF 500 million.

These expectations are also outdated: in a discussion document about the estimate for 2024, which Blick has at its disposal because of the Notifications Act, higher figures are now mentioned again.

Accordingly, the SEM corrected the average scenario to 50,000 people seeking protection in the coming year and additional costs of CHF 700 million. “In all, those seeking protection from Ukraine are likely to burden the federal budget by CHF 0.8 to 1.2 billion in 2024,” the document says.

Source:Blick