Does the SP benefit from the demise of CS?

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The SP comes from the vale of tears. After their historically worst result in the 2019 National Council elections, things are looking good again. At 17.8 percent, it is up 1 percentage point, strengthening second place behind the SVP, as shown by the latest SRG election barometer.

The SVP also increased by 1 percentage point to 26.6 percent and secured first place. Also among the winners are the FDP with a new 15.6 percent and the GLP with 8.3 percent. Both make half a percent ahead.

On the loser side, on the other hand, are the Center with 13.3 percent (-0.5) and the Greens. The latter have to take into account a loss of no less than 2.5 percentage points – but at 10.7 percent they remain above the magical limit of 10 percent.

Often nervous

The election barometer has a catch: the earthquake in CS is not reflected in the results because the survey was completed on March 5. The current upheavals were unforeseeable.

That raises the question of how the debacle will affect the election. The nervousness in the Federal Palace is great. This is shown by the attacks among the bourgeois parties. While the SVP criticizes the “FDP feeling”, the Liberals blame former SVP finance minister Ueli Maurer (72) for not looking enough.

Through pass for SP

A smiling third party is the SP. The CS misery is a political doorway for the left, according to bourgeois parliamentarians. A through ball that the SP is already trying to use: the comrades are currently happily tweeting the result of the vote on a left-wing motion calling for a ban on bonuses for systemically important banks. All civil parties almost unanimously rejected the 2018 initiative – including the FDP, which is now strongly demanding a ban on bonuses in the CS case.

Advantage SP – Sotomo political scientist Michael Hermann (51), responsible for the SRG election barometer, sees it that way. “CS’s failure has not exactly boosted confidence in the market economy,” he told Blick. “This gives the SP a tailwind, as it has long held critical positions vis-à-vis banks.”

However, he assumes that the SP can continue to grow at the expense of the Greens and that the gap within the left-Green camp is widening. “If the focus is on economic issues, it helps the SP more than the Greens,” says Hermann.

FDP in the picture

Not only the Greens keep the SP at a distance, also the FDP. The Liberals are unlikely to achieve their goal of becoming the second strongest power. In the Bundeshaus, bourgeois politicians expect that the FDP will have to tremble the most because of the CS misery.

“Not necessarily,” says political scientist Hermann. “The FDP is no longer the classic banking party as it used to be.” Former party leader Philipp Müller (70) has already distanced himself from the financial centre. “And the current boss Thierry Burkart quickly went on the offensive with strong demands to avert damage.” If the FDP now presents itself as a competent business party, it could even turn the perceived weakness into strength. A tightrope walker.

How long does the CS quake reverberate?

It is unclear whether the CS earthquake will reverberate in the fall elections and cause shocks. “If the situation stabilizes and no economic crisis follows, the current anger will have subsided again in the autumn,” says Hermann.

And so other things can gain importance. Immigration, for example, which has already gained importance in the election barometer. Or the climate issue, should another hot summer come.

Source:Blick