On October 22, Swiss voters will decide how the National Council and the Council of States will be composed for the next four years – and, depending on the outcome, what the Federal Council will look like in the future.
But it will only be six weeks before the party strategists start calculating. The cantonal elections will take place in Zurich on February 12 and are widely regarded as the litmus test for the federal vote.
First mood test with an interesting trend
An interesting trend is emerging in the Zurich elections: while the SVP, SP and the Greens should expect losses, the GLP, Mitte and FDP can hope. According to a study conducted by the GfS Bern research institute on behalf of the “NZZ”, the SP in Zurich must lose the most feathers: no less than 1.2 percentage points. Followed by the SVP with -0.5 and the Greens with -0.4 percentage point.
As of now, the biggest winner would be the GLP: it was already the fourth strongest party in Zurich and could gain another 1.4 percentage points in the founding canton. The center (+0.5 percentage point) and FDP (+0.4 percentage point) can also hope.
Loss post, center is strengthened
Four years after the 2019 climate elections – as a reminder: the Greens won 6.1 percent at the time, the GLP 3.2 percent – the green wave would be over. Instead, a political climate change would take place again: the pole (parties) SVP, SP and Groenen would melt, instead the political center around the GLP, center party and FDP could benefit.
Of course, caution is advised: the Green Liberals will hardly gain as many new voters on a national level as they did in Zurich, where they are particularly strong. But the election barometer of the opinion research institute Sotomo from the end of October 2022 also sees them as big winners with a growth of 1.5 percent.
According to Sotomo, under President Thierry Burkart (47), the FDP can grow more nationally than in Zurich – with a full percentage point it is dangerously close to the SP. In the case of Mitte, the situation is a bit more complicated: more voters in Zurich would show that the name change from the CVP (and BDP) to Mitte has an impact on the urban environment. But before party chairman Gerhard Pfister (60) can uncork the champagne cork, he has to wait for the elections in Lucerne in early April. His bet only works if the center in the Catholic homeland does not lose.
Greens can only help the weather
Also on the losing side, the picture is quite clear. It is actually clear to everyone that the Greens are going to be relegated again. It is difficult for President Balthasar Glättli (50) to confirm a sensational result like 2019. At most, many extreme weather events in the coming year could help – flooding or extreme drought in the summer would put climate change back in the minds of voters.
It also looks bad for the SP. Although she should not lose as much at the federal level as she did in Zurich, where she competes with the left-wing alternative list. But the movement character that the co-presidium around Mattea Meyer (35) and Cédric Wermuth (36) wants to give to the comrades does not seem to bear fruit yet. And despite inflation, rising energy costs and sky-high premiums, their major purchasing power problem has not yet caught on.
The Sotomo election barometer for the Federal Palace does not see the SVP as losing, as in Zurich. But even the 0.5 percentage point increase predicted there doesn’t even come close to making up for the 3.8 percentage point loss in the last election in 2019, which was also incredible.
Are voters tired of polarization?
The topic tree in particular could change that. Depending on what problems Switzerland faces until autumn, the posts can also be reinforced. Extreme weather would help the Greens a new SVP refugee crisis.
And yet: Melting poles, strengthening center – it would be a sign from voters that they are tired of the polarization of recent years and are leaning more again on parties that struggle to find solutions and are more pragmatic in the process.