According to the Association of Swiss Electricity Companies (VSE), major efforts are needed on the part of politicians and society to secure Switzerland’s energy supply. That is why the course must now be set towards a safe, sustainable energy supply.
Switzerland will not achieve its energy and climate goals without a hugely accelerated construction, enormous efficiency increase, targeted conversion and expansion of the grids and a close energy exchange with Europe, it was said on Tuesday at a media conference of the VSE in the presentation of the study “Energy Future 2050”. Until 2050, an annual average of 1.3 terawatt hours (TWh) would be needed to guarantee security of supply.
Four scenarios
The research shows various options, including limitations, costs and necessary preconditions, how energy and climate policy goals can be achieved with current technology. In collaboration with the Federal Materials Testing and Research Institute (Empa), the VSE registers four scenarios.
The “Energy Future 2050” is based on four representative scenarios along the dimensions “domestic adoption of new energy infrastructure” (defensive versus offensive expansion) and “energy policy relationship with Europe” (isolated versus integrated).
It is the first scientific model that simulates the entire energy system in Switzerland across sectors until the year 2050 and also takes into account the surrounding countries.
Increased import demand in 2040
The model assumes that Swiss nuclear power plants will be closed and that fossil fuels will eventually be abandoned. Therefore, in the meantime, there will probably be an increased need for imports in 2040.
The “offensively integrated” scenario provides the most robust energy supply for Switzerland overall. In this scenario, annual system costs are the lowest at about 24 billion francs — and less than the status quo, it said.
In this scenario, the dependence on electricity imports in winter is approximately 7 TWh. This corresponds to 19 percent of the requirement in the winter six months and is relatively low. The restructuring of the energy system reduces Switzerland’s dependence on energy imports by a factor of 4 to 6.
In contrast, the costs in the “defensively isolated” scenario would be around CHF 28 billion. Dependence on imports for electricity is around 9 TWh (22 percent of the requirement in the winter half year).
Energy cooperation with the EU necessary
Close energy cooperation with the EU also creates the best conditions for security of supply and the achievement of energy and climate targets – and at the lowest cost. An agreement must therefore also be reached between Switzerland and the EU in the energy sector, it said.
According to the VSE, hydropower remains the mainstay of the Swiss energy system. The acceptance of new energy infrastructures is also central: the import of green hydrogen via the emerging European hydrogen infrastructure could become a mainstay of the energy supply in winter alongside hydropower and photovoltaic solar energy.
Back-up power plants and storage facilities are needed to maintain security of supply through weather-dependent production. According to the VSE, the costs for this amount to approximately CHF 1 billion per year and are integrated in the system costs.
The conversion of the energy system also calls for a conversion and expansion of the electricity grid. The construction costs of the network are not included in the study, which should amount to 1 to 2 billion Swiss francs.
Energy security cannot be taken for granted
According to the VSE, energy security can no longer be taken for granted and the risk of an energy shortage – also in view of the increasing power consumption – is “a bitter reality”. The failures of the past ten years would weigh heavily. The conversion of the energy system is ultimately a generation project, continues the VSE.
From the VSE’s point of view, security of supply must be declared a national interest and hurdles must be taken to enable security of supply and climate neutrality in 2050. (SDA)