Swiss poker with Brussels: the EU mandate is a paper tiger

From “No Viable Path” to “Submission”

Switzerland’s closer connection with the EU’s internal market remains highly controversial, as proven by the SVP and the trade unions, who already proclaimed their “no” to the world during the Cassis media conference. If the SVP sensed Switzerland’s “total submission to the EU,” the Swiss Trade Union Confederation spoke of a “path that is not viable for us.”

But the fact that negotiations with the EU will only lead to problems is neither the fault of the SVP nor of the unions. Anyone who has had conversations with parliamentary faction and party leaders from left to right in recent days also felt no enthusiasm for the Federal Council’s package.

Worse still, no one in the lobby any longer believes that Bilateral III will ever come into force. Everyone knows that Switzerland will have to give in somewhere: in agricultural tariffs, in public services, in the arbitration court. A pinch of salt here, a pinch of salt there – at some point no one will like the soup anymore. In addition, there are the cohesion funds that Switzerland pays for participation in the internal market. Depending on the amount negotiators agree on, citizens also ask the question: is it worth it? Does the Swiss economy benefit more from the internal market than all this costs Switzerland?

Who should scuttle the Bilateral III package?

The only difference of opinion in Bern is whether they want to blame the people this time or let the package end up in parliament themselves. Some argue in favor of giving the people the last word – then the failure would be easier to sell to Brussels, along the lines of: “Gellet, that’s what we wanted, but in a direct democracy… you can’t do anything.”

Others think this strategy would just give the SVP a platform – and a big one. The fear: fighting the ‘mother of all battles’ would give the party as much of a boost as Christoph Blocher’s (83) fight against the EEA in 1992. If the EU package goes to the polls in the summer of 2027, the SVP should not invest a cent in the election campaign, say both citizens and the left in unison. You’re right.

SVP initiative as the sword of Damocles

In any case, the SVP has a special role to play in EU poker. In a few days she has to submit her sustainability initiative; the 100,000 signatures have already been collected, as national councilor Thomas Matter (57) revealed in Blick in February. This will require nothing less than ending the free movement of people if Switzerland’s population continues to grow at this rate. And it won’t be submitted when it’s ready, but when it makes the most impact: now.

Even if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs assures that it will not be impressed by this, negotiating while one of the pillars of the bilateral agreements is on a razor’s edge is somewhat bizarre. Because the initiative will change the dynamics in the EU file. The only question is in which direction. The free movement of people is much more controversial today than it was ten years ago, when the mass immigration initiative was voted yes. The new initiative could be a sword of Damocles. Or is it still a liberation? Does the initiative close ranks with the SP and the FDP, as is always the case when the SVP brings an initiative that wants to isolate Switzerland from the rest of the world? Perhaps this is the only chance the Bilaterals III have.