Will there be a social-historical turning point after the historic yes to the 13th AHV pension?: The next battle is already around the corner

The sensation had already been announced before the lunch with the first communities in Aargau, but no one wanted to shout it in the People’s House in Bern, where trade unions, leftists and Greens met. The cheers were even bigger when the yes trend was announced at noon. When the number of stalls was reached in the afternoon, the initiators embraced each other festively.

“The result is so clear, simply fantastic,” says Maillard. Also pleased that this prevented a division between language areas and generations. “The yes vote is also a recognition of the achievements of seniors – for example in the field of childcare.”

The reasons for yes

It may be a sensation, but not a surprise. There are reasons why a union initiative calling for a multibillion-dollar expansion of the welfare state achieves such a result:

The purchasing power: Exploding health insurance premiums, higher electricity costs, rising rents, general inflation. The general population has had to accept a significant loss of purchasing power in recent years. Especially retirees: even though they receive a living expenses allowance from the AHV, most receive nothing from the pension fund pensions. In reality, this leaves less money in your wallet. The 13th AHV pension offers welcome compensation.

The money: The AHV expansion costs 4 to 5 billion francs annually. An amount that would have led to a voting debacle just a few years ago. But Corona caused a turning point. The state has released 30 billion. 200 billion francs would have been available for the CS rescue. At the same time, the federal budget has grown from over 70 to over 80 billion francs within a few years and will exceed the 90 billion mark in 2027. The impression is that the state has enormous amounts of money. A few billion more or less is no longer a deterrent.

The campaign: Businesses and citizens have long underestimated the emotional state of the population. The unions, on the other hand, have been busy with their purchasing power campaign for months. The last-minute civilian promises to help retirees in need were not only helpless, but unbelievable. The no vote from five former federal councilors was a slap in the face for many seniors. And so it was a complete failure.

Socio-political turning point?

But has this marked the beginning of a turning point in socio-political times? Will trade unions and the left continue as usual, for example in June with the premium waiver initiative and in the autumn with the referendum against the reform of the pension funds?

At least it will be exciting. As with the 13th AHV pension, these two proposals also break the classic left-right scheme. Maillard is also optimistic. “The main problems of the purchasing power crisis are low pensions and high health insurance premiums.” After the current yes vote, voters will have the opportunity in June to reduce the burden, especially on young people and families, through targeted cost ceilings when it comes to premiums.

A tempting offer that also meets with sympathy in the bourgeois camp. Yet the barriers for initiators remain high. The additional costs of 4 to 5 billion francs per year for the federal government and the cantons are likely to deter many people – especially after the AHV’s multibillion-dollar yes vote. There is also an indirect counter-proposal that provides for an additional 350 million francs for premium reductions. And this time, businesses and citizens will not be misled when it comes to the campaign.

The veto power has been strengthened

However, when it comes to pension fund reform, the left and the unions hold the better cards. A Sotomo poll recently showed that 56 percent voted no. Only 33 percent were in favor, the rest were still undecided. This picture could become even clearer as an unholy alliance develops between unions and parts of the industry. While the unions complain that extra taxes would lead to lower pensions, the low-wage sector in particular fears extra wage costs. For example, farmers, but also the catering sector.

It is already clear: the left and the unions will emerge stronger from the disputes over social policy. You can win not only referenda, but also initiatives. As a veto, they will have an important voice in the coming social reforms. “The bourgeois parties must understand that they have to change their political agenda,” says Maillard. “Otherwise it will be bad for them.”